Daily Crypto Signals: SEC Regulatory Shift and Market Volatility Shape Bitcoin and XRP Outlook
The US Securities and Exchange Commission under Chair Paul Atkins has unveiled a crypto-friendly regulatory agenda proposing safe harbors
Quick overview
- The SEC, led by Chair Paul Atkins, has proposed a crypto-friendly regulatory agenda that includes safe harbors for digital assets.
- Bitcoin is struggling to maintain momentum above $112,000 as traders await key economic data, with a potential interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve on the horizon.
- XRP has experienced a 20% decline over the past 45 days, but technical indicators suggest a possible rebound to $4.80 by Q4 2025 if it maintains support above $2.47.
- Market maker Wintermute has requested the SEC to exempt network tokens like Bitcoin and Ethereum from securities regulations, highlighting the evolving nature of the crypto sector.
The US Securities and Exchange Commission under Chair Paul Atkins has unveiled a crypto-friendly regulatory agenda proposing safe harbors and reduced oversight for digital assets, while Bitcoin BTC/USD struggles to maintain momentum above $112,000 amid anticipation of Friday’s jobs report. XRP XRP/USD faces continued downward pressure with a 20% decline over 45 days, though technical analysis and onchain data suggest a potential 60-85% rebound to $4.80 by Q4 2025.
Crypto Market Developments
This week, there were big changes in the cryptocurrency market and regulations. The SEC’s spring 2025 agenda was the most important of these changes. Chair Paul Atkins put out about 20 draft guidelines that show a big change from the agency’s past strict enforcement of digital assets. The suggested framework has “certain exemptions and safe harbors” for crypto asset offerings. It also alters the Exchange Act so that crypto trading can happen on alternative trading platforms and national securities exchanges.
Wintermute, a market maker, has formally asked the SEC to keep network tokens like Bitcoin and Ethereum out of securities restrictions. They say that these tokens are more like technical parts of blockchain operations than financial goods. The drive for clearer rules comes after Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said that more than 40% of the exchange’s code is currently made by AI, and that the goal is to reach 50% by October. This shows how quickly the technology in the sector is changing.
Bitcoin Awaits Crucial Macroeconomic Data
Bitcoin’s recent price movements show that the market is being careful before key economic data comes out. The cryptocurrency is having trouble staying above the psychologically important $112,000 threshold. After hitting $112,600 on Wednesday, selling pressure came in throughout Asian trading sessions, which caused BTC to drop to $109,329 on Thursday. The drop happened at the same time as the ADP private hiring report, which revealed that just 54,000 jobs were gained in August instead of the 75,000 that analysts had projected.
Bitcoin traders and traditional markets are on “pins and needles” as they wait for Friday’s US jobs report. The data will give important information about the health of the labor economy. The most recent unemployment numbers show that 7.24 million Americans are unemployed and 7.18 million are employed. This has led to anticipation that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, there is a 97.6% chance that the Fed will lower rates by 25 basis points in September. Bitcoin bulls see this as a possible reason for prices to go back up. Even if the price is volatile, onchain data from Hyblock shows that both retail and institutional traders are still buying in spot markets. This suggests that there is strength behind the short-term uncertainty.
XRP Faces Downward Pressure
XRP has been under a lot of downward pressure over the past 45 days. It has dropped around 20% and is now stuck in a descending triangle pattern that threatens the important support level at $2.70. The current price movement of the cryptocurrency shows that the market is uncertain as a whole. Futures data shows that open interest fell from $11 billion to $7.5 billion within the same time period, which means that fewer people are speculating. But this drop in leverage exposure has brought the anticipated leverage ratio on Binance back to yearly norms. This could lower the possibility of cascading liquidations that have caused XRP’s price to change in the past.
Even though the short-term prognosis is gloomy, a number of technical and on-chain signs point to XRP possibly nearing a major bottom. The combination of a fair value difference between $2.35 and $2.65, Fibonacci retracement levels, plus a fractal pattern that looks like the fast breakout in Q1 makes a strong argument for a possible reversal.
Net taker volume is getting closer to neutral, while aggregated spot cumulative volume delta reveals that holders are starting to accumulate. As long as XRP stays above the important $2.47 support level, crypto researcher Javon Marks says the price may go up to $4.80, which is a 66% increase from where it is now. If the historical fractal pattern holds, XRP might go up by 60% to 85% in the fourth quarter. This means that the current consolidation phase could be a good time for patient investors to buy more.
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