Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Targets $3,689 as Rate-Cut Bets Lift Demand

Gold (XAU/USD) is holding at $3,654 after bouncing off the 0.382 Fibonacci level at $3,637. US inflation is sticky...

Written by: Arslan Butt • Friday, September 12, 2025 • 1 min read

• Last updated: Friday, September 12, 2025

Quick overview

Gold (XAU/USD) is currently priced at $3,654 after rebounding from the 0.382 Fibonacci level at $3,637.
US inflation remains persistent, with CPI rising 0.4% month-over-month, leading traders to anticipate rate cuts and boosting gold demand for the fourth consecutive week.
Physical gold demand in Asia is weakening, with Shanghai prices $17 below London spot and Indian prices up over 50% year-over-year, dampening pre-festival buying.
Technically, gold shows a bullish trend with a higher-low structure and key Fibonacci levels indicating potential targets of $3,673 and $3,689.

Gold (XAU/USD) is holding at $3,654 after bouncing off the 0.382 Fibonacci level at $3,637. US inflation is sticky, with CPI up 0.4% m/m vs 0.3% expected, and unemployment claims up to 263,000. Traders are now pricing in rate cuts sooner, which has underpinned safe-haven demand and gold for the 4th week in a row.

In Asia, physical demand is cracking. Shanghai gold is $17 below London spot for the 2nd week in a row, indicating weak jewelry buying. In India, domestic prices are up over 50% yoy and have dampened pre-festival season demand.

XAU/USD

Gold Technicals

From a technical perspective, gold has built a higher-low structure since early September, guided by an uptrend line. The 50-EMA at $3,635 is supporting short-term, the 200-EMA at $3,455 is supporting the bigger picture.

Candle action is bullish: a bullish engulfing candle reclaimed $3,650, showing buyer conviction. RSI is at 64, below overbought, so room for more upside. Fibonacci levels are key, $3,615 is the defensive floor, $3,673-$3,689 is the immediate target.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview — GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

Gold Trade Setup and Outlook

For traders, a long entry is favored above $3,651, with targets at $3,673 and $3,689. Stop below $3,615. The setup is based on higher lows, EMA alignment and supportive momentum, all of which is bullish.

If gold breaks $3,689, momentum could take it to $3,700 and beyond, extending its run as a hedge against sticky inflation and policy uncertainty. For new traders, this means gold’s bounce may not be just a pause, it could be the start of the next leg higher.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.