Gold Price Forecast: $3,768 Level Tested as Powell and CPI Loom
Gold holds at $3,768 after Powell’s cautious Fed remarks; traders eye U.S. inflation data and technical resistance at $3,786 for the next...
Quick overview
- Gold prices remained near record highs, trading at $3,768.59 per ounce as investors await key US inflation data.
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the need to balance inflation risks with a cooling labor market, providing little guidance on future rate changes.
- Geopolitical tensions continue to support gold demand, with NATO warning Russia and President Trump discussing Ukraine's territorial recovery.
- Technical analysis indicates gold is consolidating below resistance levels, with potential for upward movement if it surpasses $3,786.
Gold held steady near record highs on Wednesday as investors absorbed Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s cautious comments and looked ahead to key US inflation data later in the week. Spot GOLD was at $3,768.59 per ounce as of 04:03 GMT, just below Tuesday’s record of $3,790.82.
Powell said the Fed must balance the risks of high inflation with a cooling labour market in its upcoming decisions. His comments were seen as neutral and didn’t give traders much guidance on future rate moves.
Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst at OANDA, said “overbought technicals are prompting some profit taking” but added “both medium term and short term trends are still bullish”.
Key US Data This Week
Markets are now watching the weekly jobless claims on Thursday and PCE on Friday – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. “If Friday’s data shows inflation is higher than expected, possibly driven by tariffs, it could weigh on gold” said Capital.com’s Kyle Rodda.
Goldman Sachs forecast 25bp cuts in October and December with 50bp possible if the labour market weakens faster than expected. Two more cuts in 2026 would take the rate to 3.00% – 3.25%.
Geopolitical Risks Support
Beyond US policy, geopolitical tensions remain in focus. NATO issued a warning to Russia on Tuesday, saying it would use “all necessary tools” in its defence and President Trump said Ukraine could recover occupied territory. Such developments continue to underpin safe haven demand for bullion.
Gold (XAU/USD) Technical Analysis
Gold is consolidating just below resistance at $3,786 after bouncing off the ascending trendline at $3,756 which has been strong support since early September. This “trendline validation” reinforces the bigger picture bullish structure.
Candlestick patterns – spinning tops and small bodied candles – show hesitation at higher levels. The RSI at 62 has cooled from overbought levels but no bearish divergence has formed. The 50-SMA is above the 200-SMA, bullish but stretched conditions warn of pullbacks.
Trade: Above $3,786 and we could see $3,800–3,815. Stop below $3,756. Below $3,756 and we could see $3,737 or $3,720.
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