Gold Forecast: Can Bulls Hold $3,760 with 6 U.S. Data Shocks Ahead?
Gold’s rally paused on Tuesday after mixed U.S. releases and a strong housing beat. Flash Manufacturing PMI slipped to 52.0...
Quick overview
- Gold's rally paused due to mixed U.S. economic data, with manufacturing and services PMIs showing weakness.
- New Home Sales exceeded expectations, contributing to rising Treasury yields and limiting gold's upside.
- Upcoming economic data releases will significantly influence market sentiment and gold's price direction.
- Technical analysis indicates key support and resistance levels for gold, with potential for bullish or bearish continuation.
Gold’s rally paused on Tuesday after mixed U.S. releases and a strong housing beat. Flash Manufacturing PMI slipped to 52.0 versus 52.2 expected (53.0 prior), while Flash Services eased to 53.9, its weakest since May. The Richmond Fed index deteriorated sharply to −17 against a −5 forecast, signaling weakness in regional factory activity.
Housing data offered a counterweight. New Home Sales surprised at 800K versus a 650K consensus, a growth signal that lifted Treasury yields and capped bullion’s upside.
Data in Focus
Wednesday brings a cluster of high-impact prints:
- Final GDP q/q: 3.3% consensus
- Jobless Claims: 233K consensus
- Core Durable Goods m/m: −0.1% (1.0% prior)
- Durable Goods m/m: −0.3% (−2.8% prior)
- GDP Price Index q/q: 2.0% consensus
- Existing Home Sales: 3.96M (4.01M prior)
Stronger growth and firmer prices typically boost real yields and the dollar, limiting gold. Weak orders or a soft claims print could ease yields, supporting bullion.
Why the Data Matters
Gold remains a duration-sensitive, dollar-inverse asset. Hot GDP or firm inflation proxies could reinforce bets that the Federal Reserve delays rate cuts, lifting yields and pressuring gold. Conversely, softer claims or weak durable goods could trigger a “growth scare” trade—lower yields, weaker dollar, and renewed support for bullion. With Powell avoiding fresh policy signals this week, the numbers will dictate sentiment.
Positioning is another factor. After a run to record highs, speculative money trimmed exposure. A downside surprise could force fast money to chase back into the trade.
Gold (XAU/USD) Technical Outlook
On the 4-hour chart, gold is testing a key confluence zone. Price holds above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $3,731, with $3,712 (50% retracement) the next support. The RSI has cooled to 53 from overbought, signaling consolidation rather than reversal.
Repeated rejections near $3,760–$3,791 highlight supply overhead, with spinning-top candles showing indecision. A sustained break above $3,760 would target $3,791 and $3,815. A close below $3,712 risks $3,693 and $3,675.
Gold (XAU/USD) Trading View
With six major releases due, confirmation matters. Breaks above $3,760 favor bullish continuation, while closes under $3,712 tilt bearish. Respect the levels, keep stops tight, and avoid chasing the first move.
- Check out our free forex signals
- Follow the top economic events on FX Leaders economic calendar
- Trade better, discover more Forex Trading Strategies
- Open a FREE Trading Account
Save