Silver Price Prediction: Can $44 Support Hold as U.S. PCE Data Looms?

Silver is trading at $44.73 after the big rally from $41 but now faces a test as US fundamentals come into focus. Thursday’s numbers...

Written by: Arslan Butt • Friday, September 26, 2025 • 1 min read

• Last updated: Friday, September 26, 2025

Quick overview

Silver is currently trading at $44.73 after a rally but faces challenges due to strong US economic data.
Traders are cautious ahead of the upcoming PCE number, which could influence rate cut expectations.
Technically, silver is above key support levels, but indecision is evident at the $45.29 resistance.
The trade setup suggests accumulating silver above $44.20, with a bullish breakout target of $45.90.

Silver is trading at $44.73 after the big rally from $41 but now faces a test as US fundamentals come into focus. Thursday’s numbers were hotter than expected: Final GDP 3.8% (vs 3.3%), jobless claims 218K, durable goods 2.9%. That’s a strong US economy which supports the dollar and caps upside for metals.

But traders are cautious ahead of Friday’s PCE number. Forecasts are for 0.2% month over month, down from 0.3%, and 2.7% year over year. A softer number could reignite rate cut expectations and that’s good for silver as a non-yielding safe haven.

Silver (XAG/USD) Technicals at a Crossroads

Silver is still respecting the trendline and above the 50 period SMA at $44.17. The 100 period SMA is lower at $42.40 so the recent momentum is strong. A cluster of spinning tops at $45.29 resistance shows indecision as buyers and sellers battle for direction.

[[XAG/USD-graph]]

RSI has cooled to 56 after getting overbought. Fibonacci levels confirm the range: support at $44.09 and a close above $45.30 could trigger $45.55 and $45.92.

Silver (XAG/USD) Trade Setup and Outlook

For traders the setup is to accumulate as long as silver holds above $44.20. A bullish engulfing candle above $45.30 would confirm the breakout and $45.90 is the target. A failure to hold $44.17 would pull prices back to $43.72 or $43.36.

Silver Price Chart - Source: Tradingview — Silver Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

Strong US numbers are pressuring metals but the PCE number will reset Fed expectations. Silver is at a crossroads. Traders betting on a supportive PCE number see this consolidation as the base for the next leg up.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.