Tesla Stock TSLA at 2025 Highs, but Stalls Pre Q3 Sales – Deliveries Forecast
Tesla’s stock rally has slowed short of record highs as investors brace for the company’s third-quarter delivery results due mid-week.
Quick overview
- Tesla's stock has reached its highest levels since early 2025, nearing the all-time record of $488, but the rally has slowed as investors await third-quarter delivery results.
- Analysts estimate Tesla's Q3 deliveries will range from 448,000 to 456,000 vehicles, driven by a surge in U.S. buyers seeking EV tax credits, yet still below last year's record.
- The company's performance is mixed, with strong growth in China contrasted by a significant decline in European deliveries, highlighting challenges in balancing demand across regions.
- CEO Elon Musk's recent $1 billion stock purchase has boosted investor confidence, while broader market dynamics have also contributed to Tesla's stock rise.
Live TSLA Chart
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Tesla’s stock rally has slowed short of record highs as investors brace for the company’s third-quarter delivery results due mid-week.
Tesla Nears Historic Peak Amid Anticipation
Tesla’s stock has climbed to its highest levels since early 2025, breaching $450 and approaching the all-time record of $488. Yet the rally has stalled as traders wait for the company’s third-quarter delivery results, expected mid-week. Optimism over China’s sales surge, progress in autonomous driving, and Elon Musk’s rare insider stock purchase have reignited investor interest, but caution lingers ahead of the numbers.
Q3 Deliveries in Focus
Analysts have boosted their estimates for Tesla’s third-quarter deliveries to a range of 448,000–456,000 vehicles, partly driven by a rush of U.S. buyers eager to secure EV tax credits before they expire at the end of September.
Even at the top end, deliveries would remain below last year’s record 463,000 units, underscoring persistent demand uncertainty. The company’s global production and delivery updates typically arrive within days of a quarter’s close—this time likely on Wednesday or Thursday.
Demand Picture Mixed Across Regions
Tesla’s momentum is being powered primarily by China. The company delivered 83,197 vehicles there in August, a 22.6% month-over-month jump helped by targeted price cuts, including a 3.7% reduction for the long-range Model 3.
In contrast, Europe continues to weigh on performance: August deliveries fell 37% year-on-year to 8,220 vehicles, dragging year-to-date sales down 43%. This divergence underscores Tesla’s challenge of balancing growth in China with waning demand and reduced incentives in Europe.
TSLA Chart Weekly – Massive Gains in September
Musk’s Billion-Dollar Vote of Confidence
Adding to the bullish narrative, CEO Elon Musk made his first personal stock purchase in nearly five years—acquiring 2.57 million shares worth about $1 billion. The move was interpreted as a strong show of confidence in Tesla’s long-term strategy and immediately sent the stock up 4%, briefly touching $450, surpassing its 2025 high and 2021 peak of $414.50. Investors now look to the December 2021 record high of $488 as the next technical target.
Push into Chinese Tech Ecosystem
Tesla’s competitive strategy in China extends beyond pricing. The automaker is integrating popular local apps and AI platforms—such as Baidu Maps, WeChat, Doubao, and DeepSeek Chat—into its vehicles. These partnerships strengthen Tesla’s localization efforts and help fend off rising domestic EV rivals.
Progress in Full Self-Driving Technology
On the innovation front, Musk revealed that Tesla’s next-generation Full Self-Driving (FSD) platform will be ten times more powerful than its current version. A wider FSD rollout could come as soon as September, and Tesla recently expanded its Austin robotaxi service area from 20 to 170 square miles. Such developments reinforce the company’s ambition to lead the shift toward fully autonomous mobility—a theme that continues to attract long-term investors.
Macro Tailwinds Lift Growth Stocks
Broader market dynamics have also favored Tesla’s rise. A 25-basis-point Fed rate cut, weaker U.S. employment data, and Chair Jerome Powell’s relatively dovish guidance have boosted risk appetite, especially for growth-oriented names like Tesla. U.S. equity benchmarks setting fresh highs have added to the supportive environment.
Outlook: While Tesla’s stock has regained its shine and investor sentiment is improving, the upcoming delivery figures will be crucial in determining whether the rally can extend beyond short-term optimism. With Europe still a weak spot and cheaper EV models on the horizon, the Q3 report will serve as a vital checkpoint for Tesla’s global growth story.
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