Gold Price Forecast: $4,145 in Sight as CPI, PPI, and Retail Data Loom
Gold holds above $4,000 as traders eye US CPI, PPI, and retail data. A breakout above $4,045 could target $4,145 if inflation softens...
Quick overview
- Gold (XAU/USD) closed the week above $4,000, maintaining stability as investors prepare for significant economic data.
- The ongoing government shutdown and expectations of a December rate cut are contributing to safe-haven demand for gold.
- Key US inflation indicators, including CPI and PPI, are set to be released this week, which could impact the Federal Reserve's policy outlook.
- Technically, gold is forming an ascending triangle, with potential targets for a breakout above $4,045.
Gold (XAU/USD) ended the week near $4,001, holding steady above the key $4,000 level as investors positioned ahead of a data-heavy week that could redefine the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.
Despite a slight pullback in the US dollar, traders remain cautious amid the ongoing government shutdown and expectations of a December rate cut, currently priced at 67%, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool.
The Congressional Budget Office warned that the prolonged shutdown could shave 1–2% off US GDP, further reinforcing safe-haven demand.
Meanwhile, tariff-related legal uncertainty continues to weigh on investor sentiment, keeping gold resilient even as broader risk assets struggle to find direction.
US Data Week Ahead: CPI, PPI, and Retail Sales
This week’s focus turns sharply toward inflation and consumer data.
Markets will be watching:
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Core CPI (Nov 13) – forecast 0.3%, up from 0.2% prior.
-
Headline CPI (Nov 13) – forecast 0.2% vs 0.3% prior.
-
Core PPI and Retail Sales (Nov 14) – key indicators for demand and pricing pressures.
Any downside surprises in CPI or PPI could strengthen bets for a Fed rate cut, weakening the dollar and driving gold higher. Conversely, stronger-than-expected inflation would dampen bullish sentiment and push gold into consolidation.
Gold (XAU/USD) Technical Outlook: Bullish Setup Builds
On the 4-hour chart, GOLD continues to form an ascending triangle, with firm support at $3,965 and resistance around $4,045. The 20-EMA is trending higher, suggesting improving short-term momentum, while the RSI near 52 signals equilibrium before a potential move.
A decisive breakout above $4,045 could target $4,142 and $4,227, while a break below $3,965 may expose a pullback toward $3,883, where buyers could re-enter.
Gold Outlook
Gold’s structure remains bullish into mid-November as traders await US inflation and retail data. A weaker CPI print could ignite a breakout rally toward $4,145, reinforcing gold’s role as the market’s preferred hedge amid political and economic uncertainty.
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