NVO Stock Attempts A Reversal as Novo Nordisk Drops Metsera – Can It Happen?

Quick overview

Following a protracted selloff, Novo Nordisk’s shares have not gained momentum; last week’s slight increase merely provided short-term respite amid mounting worries about expenses, rules, and competition.

Steep Decline Since Mid-2024

After dominating global headlines in 2023 for its groundbreaking weight-loss drugs, Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO) has seen its market value unravel at a staggering pace. The company’s stock has lost nearly two-thirds of its value since June 2024, plunging from just below $150 to under $50 as rising production costs, insurance pressures, and fierce competition eroded investor confidence.

NVO Chart Weekly – A Base Has Formed at $45

The downtrend has persisted for months, with technical indicators showing sustained weakness. However, a support zone around $45 has emerged — the same level that halted declines in August — providing a possible short-term floor. On Tuesday, the stock rallied 7%, closing at $49.30 after a previous session close of $45.68, driven by news that the company had officially withdrawn from the Metsera acquisition battle.

Despite the bounce, the move represents a modest recovery compared to the 65% loss from 2024 highs, and the stock remains well below key moving averages that would confirm any lasting reversal.

Metsera Bid Withdrawal Sparks Relief Rally

The immediate catalyst behind Novo Nordisk’s rebound was its decision to end its pursuit of Metsera Inc., a U.S.-based obesity drug developer. The company had been engaged in an escalating bidding war with Pfizer, with offers reportedly nearing $10 billion.

By announcing that it would not raise its acquisition offer, Novo Nordisk effectively exited the race, clearing the way for Pfizer to finalize the purchase. Investors welcomed the move as a sign of capital discipline after months of costly deal speculation that had raised concerns about potential overreach and dilution.

According to sources familiar with the matter, Novo Nordisk’s management made the decision after Pfizer matched its latest bid and the U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC) flagged potential regulatory risks tied to Novo’s proposed deal structure. Those concerns further complicated an already expensive transaction, making continuation increasingly unattractive.

Strategic Reset Amid Fierce Competition

The strategic retreat marks a turning point for Novo Nordisk as it navigates a rapidly evolving obesity drug landscape. Competitors such as Eli Lilly, whose Mounjaro and Zepbound treatments have gained market traction, continue to chip away at Novo’s dominance.

Moreover, sales growth for Wegovy and Ozempic — once the company’s crown jewels — has slowed amid supply bottlenecks and tighter insurance reimbursement standards in key markets like the U.S. and Europe. Analysts suggest the decision to walk away from Metsera reflects a broader shift toward protecting margins and prioritizing in-house research rather than engaging in aggressive M&A.

Novo Nordisk is expected to redirect resources toward scaling production, advancing next-generation GLP-1 therapies, and expanding global distribution to sustain competitiveness.

Technical Picture: Weak but Stabilizing

From a technical standpoint, Novo Nordisk’s chart continues to show a dominant bearish trend. The price remains well below the 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages, both of which have acted as persistent resistance since mid-2024.

For the stock to regain a sustainable bullish trajectory, buyers will need to push the price decisively above those moving averages — a challenge given the current market sentiment and lack of strong catalysts in the near term. Until then, the recent uptick may be viewed more as a relief rally than a confirmed trend reversal.

Cautious Outlook Ahead

While Novo Nordisk’s withdrawal from the Metsera race could ease short-term financial strain, it underscores a growing realization that the company’s explosive growth phase may be behind it — at least for now.

With profitability under pressure, regulatory risks mounting, and rivals tightening their grip on the obesity drug market, Novo Nordisk’s ability to stabilize and rebuild investor confidence will depend on execution, innovation, and disciplined capital management.

For now, the bounce offers a breather, not a breakthrough.

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Skerdian Meta

Lead Analyst

Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.