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Forex Signals Nov 25: Earnings Preview – ALIBABA, Dell, ADI, and US PPI
Today Dell Techologies, Alibaba Group and Analog Devices release Q3 earnings, followed by US PPI inflation and retail sales for October.
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Last updated: Tuesday, November 25, 2025
Quick overview
- Dell Technologies, Alibaba Group, and Analog Devices are set to release their Q3 earnings today, providing insights into consumer demand and technology spending.
- The U.S. dollar traded mixed as expectations for a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve clashed with ongoing geopolitical tensions.
- U.S. equities surged, led by the Nasdaq, amid optimism for peace developments and lower interest rates.
- Commodities and cryptocurrencies rebounded, with oil prices rising and Bitcoin recovering nearly $2,000 after a recent decline.
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MARKETS TREND
Today Dell Techologies, Alibaba Group and Analog Devices release Q3 earnings, followed by US PPI inflation and retail sales for October.
Us Dollar Trades Mixed As Rate Cut Bets And Geopolitics Clash
The U.S. dollar ended Monday without a clear direction as traders balanced increasing expectations of a December Federal Reserve rate cut against ongoing geopolitical uncertainty that continues to support safe-haven demand.
Fed Rate Cut Expectations Rise
Markets are now pricing in roughly a 70% to 75% probability of a rate cut in December. This shift follows more dovish commentary from New York Fed President Williams, Fed Governor Waller, and San Francisco Fed President Daly, reinforcing the view that monetary policy could soon turn more accommodative.
Holiday Thinner Volume Ahead
With U.S. Thanksgiving approaching on Thursday, trading volumes are expected to thin. This could result in more erratic, “drift-like” price movements as fewer participants remain active in the market.
Geopolitical Tensions Limit Dollar Weakness
Ongoing concerns surrounding the Ukraine–Russia situation have helped underpin demand for safe-haven assets. These tensions have likely prevented a sharper selloff in the dollar despite growing expectations for lower interest rates.
Us Stocks Surge On Rate And Peace Hopes
U.S. equities surged as optimism around potential peace developments combined with lower-rate expectations. The Nasdaq led the rally, jumping 2.69%, while the S&P 500 climbed 1.55%.
Commodities And Crypto Rebound
Oil prices recovered following last week’s 3.3% decline, rising $0.91, or 1.57%, to $58.97. Gold posted a strong gain of $74, up 1.83% to $4,138.49. Bitcoin also rebounded sharply, adding nearly $2,000 on the day to trade around $88,762. The cryptocurrency had earlier touched a low of $85,225 before reversing higher. Despite the recovery, it remains well below its October high near $125,000.
Key Market Events to Watch Tuesday: Earnings Calendar and US Retail Sales
Three major companies report results, offering insight into consumer demand, technology spending, and global trade trends, besides the US PPI inflation and retail sales data.
ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LIMITED (BABA)
- Reports: Q2 2026 earnings – Before Market Open (BMO)
- Consensus EPS: 5.78
- Investors will be watching updates on China’s consumer recovery, cloud growth, and international expansion
- Any changes in margins or e-commerce demand trends could influence not just BABA, but Asian tech sentiment broadly
- Commentary on AI investments and capital returns may also impact share price direction
ANALOG DEVICES, INC. (ADI)
- Reports: Q4 2025 earnings – Before Market Open (BMO)
- Consensus EPS: 2.23
- Traders will focus on demand from the industrial and automotive chip sectors
- Signals on inventory normalization and order trends will offer clues about the semiconductor cycle
- Guidance around 2026 demand could move other analog and mixed-signal semiconductor names
DELL TECHNOLOGIES INC. (DELL)
- Reports: Q3 2026 earnings – After Market Close (AMC)
- Consensus EPS: 2.48
- Market attention on server, AI hardware demand, and enterprise IT spending
- Any surprises in infrastructure or cloud-related segments may spark after-hours volatility
- Outlook on PC demand going into 2026 will also be closely analyzed
Data In Focus On Tuesday
Tuesday’s U.S. economic calendar includes releases for PPI m/m, retail sales m/m, pending home sales m/m, the Richmond manufacturing index, and CB consumer confidence.
The delayed U.S. September retail sales report is scheduled for 13:30 GMT / 08:30 EST on Tuesday, November 25. Headline month-over-month retail sales are expected to increase by 0.4%, compared with the previous 0.6%, with estimates ranging between -0.1% and +0.6%. Ex-autos is forecast at 0.3%, down from 0.7%, while the retail control group is also anticipated at 0.3%, compared to 0.7% previously. Ex-gas and autos last registered a 0.7% gain.
According to Bank of America’s monthly Consumer Checkpoint data, total credit and debit card spending per household rose 2% year-over-year in September, compared to 1.7% in August. On a seasonally adjusted basis, spending per household increased 0.2% month-over-month, marking the fourth consecutive monthly gain.
Gold Rebounds
Although demand for safe haven assets is still high, gold fell precipitously from record highs following the Fed’s most recent rate cut comments, as profit-taking was prompted by Powell’s cautious tone. Earlier this month, gold jumped above $4.3800 following the Federal Reserve’s announcement of a 25 basis point rate decrease. But the impetus soon waned, and prices dropped back to $4,004. The 20 daily SMA (gray) held as support last week, but it gave way yesterday as sellers pushed Gold below $3,900 but buyers returned and pushed XAU above $4,000K.
USD/JPY Soars Above 157
Foreign exchange markets saw sharp swings. Early in the week, U.S. yield differentials and Japanese capital outflows pushed the dollar above ¥150, but disappointing U.S. jobs data triggered profit-taking, causing the USD/JPY to slide by four yen from its peak. However, the new BOJ governor the JPY has weakened and USD/JPY soared to 154 and we decided to close our buy signal for more than 80 pips.
USD/JPY – Weekly Chart
Cryptocurrency Update
Bitcoin Finds Support
Cryptocurrencies remained highly active over the summer. Bitcoin (BTC) climbed to fresh highs of $123,000 and $124,000 in July and August, supported by institutional inflows and technical strength. However, remarks from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent ruling out U.S. increases to BTC reserves triggered a steep pullback, sending the coin down below $105,000 before finding support at the 200 daily SMA (purple) and recovering above $115,000 but then fell toward $100K again. However over the weekend BTC started to rebound off the $10oK again and the price climbed above $106K but reversed lower and yesterday BTC fell close to $90K, breaking the 50 weekly SMA too.
BTC/USD – Weekly Chart
Ethereum Stays Close to $3,000
Ethereum (ETH) has been similarly strong, surging toward $4,800, its highest since 2021 and near its all-time peak of $4,860. Despite a dip last week, ETH found support at the 20-day SMA, with retail enthusiasm and renewed institutional participation driving fresh upside momentum. This Week we saw a dive below $3.500 as ETH heads below $3,000.
ETH/USD – Daily Chart
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Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst.
Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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