Solana Network Metrics Collapse as SOL Risks Drop to $86 Amid Bear Pennant Formation
Solana (SOL) is down 4.4% in the last day, trading at $123. The native token of the layer-1 blockchain has fallen 52% from its peak of $255
Quick overview
- Solana (SOL) is currently trading at $123, down 4.4% in the last day and 52% from its September peak of $255.
- The total value locked in Solana's ecosystem has dropped over 34% to $8.67 billion, marking a significant capital flight from its previous peak of $13.22 billion.
- Technical analysis indicates a bearish trend for SOL, with a potential drop to $86 suggested by a bear pennant formation.
- Despite short-term pessimism, some institutional investors remain optimistic about Solana's long-term prospects, projecting a price of $500 by the end of 2025.
At the moment of writing, Solana SOL/USD is down 4.4% in the last day, trading at $123. The native token of the layer-1 blockchain has fallen 52% from its peak of $255 in September, reflecting the general decline in altcoins that surfaced when Bitcoin fell to $80,000 in November. SOL may now be subject to more downside pressure due to a combination of declining on-chain metrics and bearish technical patterns; some experts predict a slide toward $86.
Solana’s Total Value Locked Plunges to Six-Month Lows
With total value locked falling more than 34% to $8.67 billion as of Wednesday, the lowest level since June, the Solana ecosystem is undergoing a major capital flight. This represents a sharp reversal from the network’s peak of $13.22 billion on September 14; throughout the previous month, TVL has steadfastly stayed below the $10 billion barrier.
The leakage has been extensive throughout Solana’s decentralized finance ecosystem, according to data from DefiLlama. While big protocols like Jupiter DEX (down 30%), Raydium (down 46%), and Sanctum protocol (down 46%) have all had significant outflows, Jito liquid staking lead the exodus with a 53% fall since mid-September.
Metrics of network activity support the pessimistic thesis. Just $3.43 million was spent on Solana’s chain fees in the last week, which is an 11% weekly decrease and a 23% decrease from the previous month. During that time, base layer active addresses dropped 7.8%, and week-over-week transaction counts dropped 6.3%. These decreasing engagement indicators point to a decline in network usefulness and a decrease in the demand for SOL.
Memecoin Trading Volume Collapses 95% From January Peak
The Solana memecoin craze that dominated the first part of 2025 has faded. According to data from Blockworks Research, the weekly DEX volume attributed to memecoins on the network has fallen 95% to $2.7 billion from its peak of $56 billion in January.
All memecoin prices have been severely impacted by this sharp decline in speculative trading activity. Memecoins based in Solana have experienced double-digit losses on weekly and monthly timescales, with the majority of tokens falling between 10% and 25% from their local highs. Because memecoins need the original asset for transaction fees and are frequently the main source of network activity during bull cycles, the decline in memecoins has a direct effect on SOL demand.
SOL/USD Bear Pennant Formation Signals Potential Drop to $86
Technically speaking, SOL is displaying traditional bearish continuation patterns that portend more down. Right now, the token is trading in a bear pennant shape, which usually appears following a steep drop and indicates that selling pressure is still strong.
The following leg down was made possible by last week’s break below the pennant’s support line at $135. This pattern’s measured goal is $86, which would indicate a possible 32% drop from the current price levels. However, bulls are anticipated to make a defense at the 200-week exponential moving average at $118, where SOL may find temporary support prior to hitting this goal.
On Wednesday, leverage trader Grim, who goes by a pseudonym, observed that “a bear pennant is forming on Solana’s four-hour chart.” “I would not be surprised to see Solana between $90 and $100 soon.”
A similarly pessimistic picture is painted by additional technical examination. Bears continue to dictate price movement, as evidenced by the relative strength index below 39 and the downsloping 20-day EMA at $133. The downward trend would be confirmed if SOL closed below the present support level, which might push it toward $110 before testing important support at $95.
Contrasting Views: Institutional Optimism Versus Technical Weakness
Some institutional players continue to hold bullish long-term expectations despite the pessimistic short-term outlook. According to VanEck’s projection, Solana may hit $500 by the end of 2025 due to growing institutional investment and application adoption. An important milestone for institutional adoption was reached in 2025 with the approval of Solana staking ETFs, which managed $1 billion in assets in just one month.
Furthermore, the Solana Foundation has implemented post-quantum digital signatures to improve security and deliver a quantum-resistant upgrade on the testnet. This is a proactive move that tackles possible future threats to blockchain networks.
Solana Price Outlook: Bulls Must Defend Key Support Levels
Bulls must raise the price above the resistance line and keep support above it in order for SOL to refute the bearish argument. The token might rise back toward the $200 range where it traded earlier in 2025 if a breakout is successful, which could spark a surge toward $172.
But sellers are favored by the current technical configuration. A confirmed bear pennant collapse, disappearing memecoin volume, dropping TVL, and worsening network indicators all point to a downward path of least resistance.
The next significant support zone is at $95, which is in line with other technical indicators, including the symmetrical triangle support line, if the $118 support fails to hold. The bear pennant goal of $86—a return to price levels last observed in mid-2024—would become accessible with a break below $95 as well.
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