XRP Faces Critical Juncture at $1.80 as Supply Dynamics Clash With Bearish Technicals
As December 2025 comes to an end, the XRP market is at a crucial point. The digital asset has been stable at $1.80. There are two scenarios
Quick overview
- As December 2025 ends, XRP is stable at $1.80, facing two conflicting scenarios regarding its future price movement.
- XRP balances on centralized exchanges have plummeted to 1.5 billion tokens, driven by strong demand for new US-based Spot XRP ETFs.
- Technical analysis shows a critical support zone between $1.90 and $2.00, with oversold conditions suggesting potential bullish momentum ahead.
- The decline in Open Interest on Binance indicates waning trader confidence, raising concerns about XRP's short-term price outlook.
As December 2025 comes to an end, the XRP XRP/USD market is at a crucial point. The digital asset has been stable at $1.80. There are two contradictory scenarios building under the surface stability. One says that restricting supply could lead to positive momentum, while the other warns of an eventual breakdown based on worsening technical indications.
Exchange Balances Plummet as XRP ETF Demand Accelerates
According to Glassnode’s on-chain data, XRP balances on centralized exchanges have dropped to about 1.5 billion tokens, which is the lowest level in more than a year. This is a huge drop from the 4 billion XRP that were on exchanges earlier in 2025. The fourth quarter saw especially large outflows.
The new US-based Spot XRP ETFs seem to be the main reason for this drop in supply. Since the first fund came out in November, these six investment products have taken in about 750 million XRP, according to market estimates. This institutional accumulation is slowly taking liquid supplies off the open market, which might make prices more sensitive to future demand spikes.
It can’t be said enough how important it is that exchange balances are going down. When tokens go from exchanges to long-term custody or ETF products, the amount of tokens that may be sold right away goes down. This should make it easier to buy fresh tokens and make the impact of new buying activity bigger.
XRP/USD Technical Analysis Reveals Divergent Signals
On-chain data show a positive picture, but classic technical analysis is more cautious. Market researcher Steph Is Crypto has found that XRP is currently challenging a very important horizontal support zone on the weekly timeframe, between $1.90 and $2.00. This level was a starting point earlier in the current market cycle, thus it is very important for bulls to protect it.
The weekly Stochastic RSI has dropped into extremely oversold territory, which is another reason to be positive. This means that selling momentum may be running out. Past patterns show that these kinds of oversold readings generally come before trend reversals, which could mean that bullish momentum will start in early 2026.
But an investigation from CryptoOnchain on the CryptoQuant platform shows worrying trends. There is a negative divergence between the RSI and price activity. The indicator is making lower highs even though XRP is trying to break through recent highs. This pattern usually means that buyers are losing strength, and it has happened before when XRP’s price has dropped a lot.
XRP Futures Market Activity Signals Waning Conviction
The steep drop in Open Interest on Binance, which just dipped to about $450 million, the lowest level since November 2024, is probably the most worrying thing for XRP bulls. This sudden drop in leveraged holdings shows that traders are either being forced to sell or are choosing to leave their positions because they don’t believe in them.
The fact that both Open Interest and price momentum are falling at the same time is a very bearish sign. This means that people in the market are moving away from XRP instead of getting ready for an upward advance.
XRP Price Outlook: A Battle Between Supply and Sentiment
The $1.80 mark is now the line in the sand for XRP’s short-term path. Technical analysts say that if this psychological and technical support level isn’t held, it could lead to faster selling, which could bring prices down to levels much lower than they are now.
On the other hand, XRP might see a big adjustment if the supply-side forces of ETF accumulation and falling exchange balances start to take hold. Extreme oversold readings and structural supply limits make for explosive upside, but only if demand shows up to take advantage of the market’s tightening structure.
Traders should keep an eye on whether institutional ETF buying stays at the same level and whether the $1.80 support level holds up in 2026. If the market can hold its present levels and ETF inflows keep coming in, it might challenge the $2.50–$3.00 region again by mid-2026. But if it breaks below $1.80, XRP could go back to the $1.40–$1.50 range before finding real support.
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