Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Slips Below $4,600 as Jobless Claims Test Bulls Near Key Support
Gold (XAU/USD) is stuck just shy of $4,615, still trying to find its footing after dropping below $4,600 in the morning session...
Quick overview
- Gold (XAU/USD) is currently hovering just below $4,615 after a drop below $4,600, reflecting a shift in trader sentiment regarding Federal Reserve interest rates.
- Recent strong US economic data, including a drop in the unemployment rate and better-than-expected producer prices and retail sales, is making gold less attractive as a hedge.
- Market focus is on upcoming US Initial Jobless Claims, with expectations of a slight rise, which could impact gold prices depending on the outcome.
- Technically, gold remains in a rising trend channel, with key levels to watch at $4,600 for support and $4,640 for resistance.
Gold (XAU/USD) is stuck just shy of $4,615, still trying to find its footing after dropping below $4,600 in the morning session. The sudden pullback is starting to tell the story of a flip in trader mood: people are becoming more convinced that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates where they are, at least for a while. A string of strong US economic data has really made people sit up and take notice – and that’s only serving to make gold look less appealing as a hedge against a possible rate cut.
New numbers from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics aren’t helping gold either. The unemployment rate fell to 4.4%, while producer prices and retail sales both beat expectations. That’s painting a clear picture of an economy that’s doing just fine, and the Feds have some room to be patient. And that’s exactly what’s happening – real yields are going up, which is weighing on gold even as there’s all this other macro uncertainty out there.
Jobless Claims + Geopolitics = Near-Term Market Focus
Now everybody is waiting to see what happens with US Initial Jobless Claims – theyre expecting a smallish rise to 215K, up from 208K. If the numbers come out a bit softer, it could ease the dollar a bit and give gold some breathing space – but if theyre stronger than expected, it’ll likely make it harder for gold to push higher.
At the same time, geopolitical tensions and concerns about institutional independence are keeping some of the downward pressure off gold, so even though prices aren’t really moving higher, they’re not falling too far either.
Golds Technical – Seeing a Range, Not a Breakout
From a technical perspective, gold is still in a good spot even with this recent pause in progress. Here on the 1-hour chart, the price has been stuck inside this rising trend channel – the top of the channel is around $4,640-$4,650, and that puts a bit of a cap on how high prices go for now. We’ve seen some mixed-up candles recently, with relatively small bodies and wicks that aren’t doing much of anything – which is basically just a sign that nobody knows what to do.
Gold is still holding above the 50-day moving average at $4,605 (the 50-period EMA), and the 200-period EMA around $4,580 is still sloping upwards, which is always a good sign. We even saw the price bounce back off a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the last rally, which is just another way of saying “this is just a correction, nothing to see here”. The RSI is about 50, which is the most neutral reading you can get, and it reflects the trading range we’re in.
Levels to watch:
- If gold falls, keep an eye on $4,600, then $4,580
- If it tries to rise, $4,640 is the first hurdle, then $4,680 is the real level to watch
Trade Idea
Gold is still looking pretty good technically, as long as it holds above $4,600. Which means our trade idea is to buy in near $4,600, and target $4,680, but if you get stopped out, that would be right under $4,575.
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