Daily Crypto Signals: Bitcoin Sell-off Tests $75K Support, XRP Faces Risk of Repeating Its 2022 Crash
Bitcoin has plummeted to a year-to-date low of $74,555—a 40% drawdown from its all-time high—as US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $2.8 billion
Quick overview
- Bitcoin has dropped to a year-to-date low of $74,555, marking a 40% decline from its all-time high, amid significant outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs totaling $2.8 billion.
- XRP has experienced a more than 20% decline in a week, with whale selling and stablecoin outflows raising concerns of a repeat of its 2022 bear-market crash.
- The overall crypto market sentiment is extremely negative, with major indicators reflecting a steep decline and significant net outflows from crypto exchange-traded products.
- Analysts suggest that if XRP falls below $1.43, it could face further losses, but there are signs that a potential stabilization and rebound may occur by late Q1 or Q2 2026.
Bitcoin BTC/USD has plummeted to a year-to-date low of $74,555, a 40% drawdown from its all-time high, as US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $2.8 billion in outflows over two weeks, pushing the average ETF purchase underwater. Meanwhile, XRP XRP/USD has fallen more than 20% in a single week, with whale selling and stablecoin outflows threatening to push the altcoin into a repeat of its devastating 2022 bear-market crash.
Crypto Market Developments
The larger crypto market is undergoing a steep decline led by a wave of institutional capital outflows and a fall in investor morale. US spot Bitcoin ETFs, long lauded as a breakthrough for mass adoption, suffered their second- and third-largest outflow weeks in succession, totaling $2.8 billion over a two-week stretch. Galaxy Digital’s head of research, Alex Thorn, stated that these outflows have now put the average Bitcoin ETF buy into the red.
Adding to the pressure, New York Attorney General Letitia James and four other state attorneys filed a letter to Congress saying that the GENIUS Act, a stablecoin regulatory framework passed into law last July, could accidentally undercut fraud protections for consumers. The prosecutors contended the proposal fails to mandate that stablecoin issuers restore monies lost to fraud or theft, possibly leaving victims without recourse while limiting states’ enforcement capacities.
All of the sentiment indicators are glowing red. Bitwise’s Cryptoasset Sentiment Index plunged to levels not seen since the October 2023 liquidation meltdown, with only two of fifteen measured indicators staying above its short-term trend. Global crypto exchange-traded products experienced $1.73 billion in net outflows last week alone, following $1.81 billion the week prior.
Bitcoin Slides to “Fire-Sale” Valuations
Bitcoin entered the week over $87,700 before rallying momentarily to $90,000, only to reverse quickly and plummet below $75,000 on Sunday, its first dip below $75,000 since early 2024. The selloff constituted a 40% drop from Bitcoin’s all-time high and drove the price below Strategy’s (previously MicroStrategy) average acquisition cost of $76,052 per coin for the first time in over two years. Despite the turmoil, Bitwise researchers underlined that Bitcoin’s two-year rolling MVRV z-score has plummeted to its lowest level on record, a statistic typically associated with considerable undervaluation and what Bitwise defined as “fire-sale” pricing.
There are modest hints that the selloff may be nearing a bottom. The daily RSI for Bitcoin fell into the 20–25 region, which has consistently preceded 10% increases since August 2023. Spot cumulative volume difference on major exchanges like Binance and Coinbase has turned positive as BTC rallied toward $79,300, suggesting the recovery is being driven by genuine spot purchasing rather than leveraged positions. Near $85,000, almost $3 billion in short positions are at risk of liquidation, which could hasten any upward momentum if the market keeps improving.
XRP Faces 2022-Style Breakdown Risk
XRP has been struck particularly hard by the larger decline, plummeting more than 20% in a single week to trade around $1.60 as of Monday, its steepest weekly selloff since October 2025. Glassnode data shows that XRP is now resting just above its aggregated realized price of $1.48, the average cost basis of all XRP in circulation. That means a big share of buyers who entered the market during the previous twelve months are already underwater, a scenario that closely mimics the conditions that led XRP’s 50% drop in 2022.
The risk picture is worsened by continuous whale activity on the sell side. CryptoQuant data suggests that XRP’s 90-day whale flow is net negative, indicating that significant investors are distributing their coins rather than collecting. At the same time, stablecoin outflows from exchanges have held negative for months, limiting the pool of buying power available to support a rebound.
Analysts warn that if XRP breaks strongly below its 100-two-week exponential moving average near $1.43, the next major support level falls around $1—a nearly 36% loss from present levels. However, the two-week RSI hovering near 38 has historically preceded reversals at comparable levels, keeping the door open for a stabilization and probable rebound by late Q1 or Q2 2026.
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