Bitcoin’s $74,500 May Mark the 2026 Floor as Institutional Bids Defend the Bottom
Bitcoin (BTC) has staged a remarkable recovery to about $78,000, marking a 1.4% gain in the past 24 hours after momentarily dropping to a
Quick overview
- Bitcoin has recovered to approximately $78,000 after hitting a year-to-date low of $74,555, marking a 1.4% gain in the last 24 hours.
- The Market-Value-to-Realized-Value (MVRV) z-score for Bitcoin has reached its lowest level ever, indicating extreme undervaluation and potential for a rebound.
- Despite significant institutional outflows totaling $3.2 billion since January, the overall conviction in Bitcoin remains strong as these outflows represent less than 3% of total assets under management.
- Technical indicators suggest a potential short-term rally towards $82,000–$85,000, supported by positive purchasing momentum and a historically unusual MVRV z-score.
Bitcoin BTC/USD has staged a remarkable recovery to about $78,000, marking a 1.4% gain in the past 24 hours after momentarily dropping to a year-to-date low of $74,555 on Monday. The resurgence follows a painful 40% decline from its all-time high of $126,220, established in October 2025, and comes as on-chain indicators flash indications that analysts are dubbing a textbook capitulation bottom.
Extreme Undervaluation Signal Flashes for the First Time Ever
According to Bitwise’s Weekly Crypto Market Compass analysis, Bitcoin’s two-year rolling Market-Value-to-Realized-Value (MVRV) z-score has fallen to its lowest level ever recorded, making it the most remarkable indication fueling positive enthusiasm. The MVRV z-score evaluates how far Bitcoin’s current market value deviates from the aggregate cost basis of all investors, adjusted for historical volatility. In the past, a very negative reading indicates that the asset is trading at a substantial discount to what holders initially paid; Bitwise referred to these circumstances as “fire-sale valuations.”
Bitwise’s Cryptoasset Sentiment Index verified the reading, plunging to levels last seen during the October 2023 liquidation episode, with only 2 of 15 tracked indicators remaining above their short-term trend lines.
Capital Outflows Paint a Bearish Picture, But Context Matters
The selloff was accompanied by large institutional outflows. Global Bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETPs) saw $1.35 billion in net outflows last week, with US spot Bitcoin ETFs alone accounting for $1.49 billion in redemptions. Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust lost $119 million, while BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust lost $947 million.
On the other hand, the impact of the outflows can be exaggerated. Spot Bitcoin ETF outflows totalling $3.2 billion since January 16 represent less than 3% of the products’ total assets under management – a statistic that implies institutional conviction in BTC remains largely intact beneath the headline numbers.
BTC/USD Technical Setup Points Toward a Short-Term Rebound
Bitcoin’s daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) plummeted into the 20–25 range at the week’s low. With the exception of June 2024, every time BTC’s RSI has entered this zone since August 2023, there has been an approximately 10% rebound. Applied to Monday’s low of ~$74,555, a 10% increase would position BTC near the $82,000 mark.
Supporting the premise, spot cumulative volume delta (CVD) on key exchanges Binance and Coinbase has become positive as prices recovered toward $79,300, indicating net aggressive purchasing. Critically, open interest has stayed level and aggregated funding rates are negative, showing the resurgence is being driven by genuine spot demand rather than leveraged speculation – decreasing the possibility of a quick reversal.
$85,000 Emerges as the Next Key Battleground
With almost $3 billion in cumulative short positions focused near $85,000, a continuation of the current trend might unleash a huge wave of short liquidations, propelling price to the higher. Bitcoin futures basis rate now lies at a modest 3%, below the neutral 5–10% range, showing potential for optimistic sentiment to rebuild without triggering overheated conditions.
Meanwhile, approach (previously MicroStrategy) continued its accumulation approach, purchasing 855 BTC last week at an average price of $87,974, increasing its total holdings to 713,502 BTC. Polymarket gamblers have priced in an 81% possibility that Strategy’s holdings will top 800,000 BTC by year-end.
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Given the historically unusual MVRV z-score, a confirmed RSI comeback pattern, and solid spot-driven purchasing momentum, a short-term rally toward $82,000–$85,000 is well-supported by current technical and on-chain data. Macro uncertainties, such as the ongoing partial closure of the US government and persistent volatility in the IT sector, could, however, postpone or moderate the advance. The $75,000 level is anticipated to hold as a critical support until 2026, barring a significant shift in macroeconomic conditions.
- Check out our free forex signals
- Follow the top economic events on FX Leaders economic calendar
- Trade better, discover more Forex Trading Strategies
- Open a FREE Trading Account
- Read our latest reviews on: Avatrade, Exness, HFM and XM
Save