Silver Price Forecast: Global Risks Reset Bull Market Toward $120 Pre-Key US Data
After a historic surge and an equally historic collapse, silver has found its footing above $80, with upcoming macro events set to determine
Quick overview
- Silver has stabilized above $80 after a historic surge and a subsequent collapse, with macroeconomic events poised to influence its recovery.
- The recent selloff, marked by a 40% drop in a single session, acted as a necessary reset rather than destroying the long-term bullish case for silver.
- Industrial demand for silver remains strong, particularly from sectors like solar energy and electric vehicles, providing a solid foundation for future price stability.
- Upcoming economic data, including U.S. employment reports, will be crucial in determining whether silver can maintain its upward momentum.
Live SILVER Chart
After a historic surge and an equally historic collapse, silver has found its footing above $80, with upcoming macro events set to determine whether the rebound can turn into a sustained recovery.
A Historic Rally Meets a Brutal Reality Check
Silver’s explosive advance into early 2026 will be remembered as one of the most dramatic moves in precious metals history. Momentum, speculative leverage, and rising demand narratives combined to propel prices sharply higher in a remarkably short period.
That surge, however, ended abruptly. In the final days of January, the market experienced a violent reversal. While gold also sold off heavily, silver bore the brunt of the liquidation. After trading above $120, prices collapsed by more than 40% in a single session, briefly falling below $64. In percentage terms, it marked one of the sharpest one-day declines silver has ever recorded.
The speed of the move triggered forced liquidations across futures, options, and leveraged products. Many participants were caught on the wrong side of an overcrowded trade, turning what began as a correction into a cascade.
A Painful Reset, Not a Broken Market
Despite the severity of the selloff, the broader bull case for silver was not destroyed. Instead, the correction acted as a necessary reset. Periods of excessive leverage rarely unwind gradually; they tend to end with sharp, emotional moves that flush out weak hands.
This episode cooled speculative excess without dismantling the longer-term structure. Positioning normalized, leverage was reduced, and volatility forced a reassessment of risk. Historically, such resets often lay the groundwork for more sustainable advances, and early signs suggest silver may be following a similar path.
The key takeaway is that while confidence was shaken, conviction among longer-term participants appears to have survived.
Policy Signals and Margin Changes Add to Turbulence
Monetary policy narratives played a significant role in amplifying volatility. Market interpretation of Warsh’s nomination remains unsettled, with traders increasingly treating him as quietly hawkish despite more balanced public comments. That perception supported the U.S. dollar and real yields—both traditional headwinds for precious metals.
At the same time, CME Group moved to curb risk by raising margin requirements for Comex gold and silver futures. For gold, margins increased from 6% to 8% for standard risk profiles, with elevated-risk margins rising to 8.8%. Similar adjustments for silver raised the cost of leveraged exposure precisely when volatility was peaking.
China also intervened, suspending trading in several commodity-linked funds to dampen speculative excess across gold, silver, and oil. Together, these measures contributed to the intensity of the selloff, but they also helped accelerate the cleansing process.
Industrial Demand Keeps the Foundation Intact
While financial flows dominated short-term price action, silver’s underlying demand story remains a critical anchor. Unlike gold, silver benefits from substantial and growing industrial usage.
Demand from solar energy, electric vehicles, power electronics, medical equipment, and advanced manufacturing continues to expand. The global energy transition is particularly important, with solar panel production alone consuming large volumes of silver. Electrification efforts across China, India, and other emerging markets further reinforce baseline demand.
Elevated physical premiums in parts of Asia, including Shanghai, suggest that supply remains tight and that physical buyers are still active, even after the price shock.
Technical Structure Signals Buyer Resilience
From a technical perspective, silver’s broader uptrend has not been invalidated. The break below $64 was significant, but the decline was ultimately contained by key moving averages. Support first emerged near the 50-day simple moving average, followed by stronger buying interest around the 100-day SMA.
Silver Chart Daily – Buyers Jump In After Every Pullback
That support held. Buyers stepped in decisively, and silver rebounded sharply, climbing back above $80 early in the new week. This behavior suggests that longer-term participants remain engaged, using pullbacks to rebuild exposure rather than abandoning the market altogether.
Key resistance levels now sit near $100, followed by the prior highs around $117–$121. On the downside, initial support is defined by the recent lows near $69 and $64.
All Eyes on the Upcoming Data Calendar
Looking ahead, macroeconomic events will be pivotal. A hotter-than-expected Producer Price Index recently pushed the dollar and Treasury yields higher, delaying expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Markets currently see little chance of easing before June.
This week brings a dense run of catalysts, including U.S. Retail Sales, CPI inflation, Non-Farm Payrolls, and the unemployment rate. A softer inflation or jobs print could weaken the dollar and reignite precious metals upside. Conversely, upside surprises—particularly in CPI—could renew pressure across the complex.
Friday’s U.S. employment report stands out as the key event. A weaker-than-expected print could quickly reverse dollar strength and reinforce silver’s rebound. A strong report, however, may test the market’s newfound stability.
A Cautious but Constructive Outlook
Silver’s reckoning was severe, but it was not fatal. The market has absorbed a historic shock, found technical support, and begun to rebuild confidence. With prices back above $80, sentiment has improved—but the next phase will depend on whether upcoming data validates expectations for easing financial conditions.
For now, the bull market has been tested, not shattered. The coming week will reveal whether silver can turn resilience into renewed momentum—or whether volatility still has one more lesson to deliver.
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