XRP Battles Mixed Signals at $1.45: Oversold Indicators Clash With Bearish Derivatives Data
XRP is trading at about $1.45, representing a slight 2.4% rise over the previous day as the coin looks to level off after weeks of declining
Quick overview
- XRP is currently trading at $1.45, showing a slight 2.4% increase, but demand remains low after weeks of decline.
- Derivatives market data indicates trader pessimism, with XRP's funding rate hitting a nine-month low, suggesting a bearish sentiment.
- Despite negative signals, technical analysis shows XRP has reached its most oversold level in history, potentially indicating an upcoming price rally.
- Key resistance levels for XRP's recovery have been identified, while long-term bullish narratives continue to support its potential.
At the time of writing, XRP XRP/USD is trading at about $1.45, representing a slight 2.4% rise over the previous day as the coin looks to level off after weeks of declining demand. For traders trying to predict XRP’s next move, on-chain measures and technical indicators paint a mixed picture despite recent attempts at recovery, including a roughly 25% spike from local lows that momentarily took the asset back toward $1.50 over the weekend.
XRP Funding Rates Hit Nine-Month Low Signaling Trader Pessimism
A concerning pattern in the derivatives market for XRP is shown by data from CryptoQuant, which may point to additional negative risk. The largest cryptocurrency exchange in the world, Binance, has seen its funding rate fall to about -0.028, the lowest since April 2025. A reversal that usually indicates general bearish sentiment, this extremely negative reading implies that short traders are now paying premiums to long traders.
According to on-chain analyst Arab Chain, this change is “a clear move toward defensive positioning and hedging against further downside.” The negative financing rate suggests that traders are prepared to shell out hefty sums of money to hold onto short positions in the hopes of more price drops. Extremely negative funding rates have historically occurred at advanced phases of downtrends when market participants have already taken a very gloomy stance.
Arab Chain does, however, recognize a possible bright spot: these excessive readings can occasionally be preceded by abrupt reversals. The analyst noted that “any uptick in sentiment could catalyze faster-than-expected price moves,” implying that contrarian traders might see the current posture as an opportunity rather than a warning.
RSI Reaches Most Oversold Level in XRP’s History
Contradicting the bearish derivatives data, technical analysis presents a compelling case for an imminent bounce. According to cryptocurrency expert Ripple Bull Winkle, XRP just reached the most oversold state in the token’s trading history when its daily chart reached an RSI (Relative Strength Index) level of 20.
Based on the analyst’s analysis, each time XRP has reached such extreme oversold condition, there has been a 15–40% price rally that usually occurs within two weeks. Before the end of February 2026, Ripple Bull Winkle predicts a possible relief rally to $2.20–$2.50 if this historical trend holds, referring to it as “the highest-probability event the market has had this year.”
XRP Price Outlook and Key Resistance Levels
A number of crucial resistance zones are identified by the technical chart analysis as potentially impeding XRP’s recovery: $1.80-$1.91, $2.06-$2.19, $2.29-$2.41, $2.67-$2.78, and $3.10-$3.18. Every level denotes possible selling pressure at which prior purchasers would try to sell or take profits.
Meanwhile, fundamental developments continue to support long-term bullish narratives. David Schwartz, a former CTO of Ripple, has highlighted XRP’s potential as a neutral settlement asset for countries looking for alternatives to currencies controlled by geopolitical enemies, implying that institutional adoption might quicken irrespective of immediate price movements.
There are risks and opportunities in the current market for investors who must navigate these conflicting signals. A tactical bounce might be on the horizon, according to the historical oversold readings, but the negative funding rates caution that overall mood is still brittle. In anticipation of XRP’s recovery when general crypto market circumstances improve, smart money seems to be taking advantage of the decline to build up positions at lower average costs.
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