Daily Crypto Signals: Strategy Doubles Down on Bitcoin, WLFI Data Hints at Predicting Crypto Crashes
Michael Saylor’s Strategy is preparing its 99th consecutive Bitcoin purchase , now spanning 12 straight weeks, even as BTC has plunged more
Quick overview
- Michael Saylor's Strategy is set to complete its 99th consecutive Bitcoin purchase, continuing a 12-week buying streak despite Bitcoin's significant price drop.
- A recent analysis indicates that the Trump-linked DeFi token WLFI began to decline over five hours before a major crypto liquidation event, suggesting it may serve as an early warning signal for market stress.
- The broader cryptocurrency market remains under pressure, with Bitcoin and altcoins experiencing substantial losses following a dramatic flash crash that liquidated approximately $6.93 billion in leveraged bets.
- Despite facing a $12.4 billion net loss and a drop in its mNAV, Strategy continues its Bitcoin accumulation strategy, defying expectations of a halt due to market conditions.
Michael Saylor’s Strategy is preparing its 99th consecutive Bitcoin purchase , now spanning 12 straight weeks, even as Bitcoin BTC/USD has plunged more than 50% from its all-time high above $125,000. Separately, a new Amberdata analysis reveals that Trump-linked DeFi token WLFI crashed more than five hours before October’s $6.93 billion crypto liquidation event, raising the possibility that it could serve as an early stress signal for broader markets.
Crypto Market Developments
Following October’s dramatic flash crash, which saw Bitcoin drop over 50% from its all-time high above $125,000 to values that momentarily fell below Strategy’s average purchase cost of $76,000 per BTC, the larger cryptocurrency market is still under a lot of pressure. Ether fell about 20% and smaller altcoins lost up to 70% of their value as a result of the sell-off, which liquidated roughly $6.93 billion in leveraged bets in less than an hour.
Crypto treasury firms have been particularly hard hit by the aftermath, as several of them saw their mNAV (multiple on net asset value), a crucial indicator of how much a company’s stock trades above its cryptocurrency holdings, drop below 1. As early as September 2025, Standard Chartered Bank identified these warning indicators. The platform’s eagerly awaited Smart Cashtags feature, which will let users trade stocks and cryptocurrencies straight from the timeline, will be available in “a couple of weeks,” according to Nikita Bier, Head of Product at X.
Bitcoin’s Saylor Streak Continues
Co-founder Michael Saylor of Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, indicated on Sunday that the company is about to complete its 99th Bitcoin transaction, continuing a buying streak that has now continued uninterrupted for 12 weeks. Saylor released the company’s Bitcoin accumulation chart on X in his trademark manner, a move that the market has come to interpret as a trustworthy pre-purchase tip. Strategy’s total holdings now stand at 714,644 BTC, or over $49.3 billion at current pricing, after the most recent confirmed purchase on February 9 adding 1,142 BTC for over $90 million.
The market background makes the accumulation impulse even more pronounced. The company reported a $12.4 billion net loss in Q4 that sent its own stock plunging 17%, but shares have since partially recovered, closing Friday at $133.88. Bitcoin’s steep decline from its peak has pushed it well below the $76,000 average cost basis at which Strategy acquired its holdings. Analysts look for a key barrier of 1.0 to indicate financial pressure, and Strategy’s mNAV has fallen to 0.90. Saylor is continuing to move forward in spite of all of this, bucking forecasts that the company would halt or reverse its accumulation strategy in the face of market pressure.
Can WLFI’s On-Chain Data Prediction Crypto Market Crashes?
A new report from data provider Amberdata is highlighting a startling trend: during October’s disastrous liquidation event, when Bitcoin was still trading close to $121,000 and exhibiting no overt signs of stress, WLFI, the DeFi governance token connected to the Trump family, started a steep decline more than five hours before Bitcoin itself fell. In the run-up to the sell-off, researchers found three anomalies: a sharp divergence from the price movement of Bitcoin, an extreme build-up of leverage, with funding rates on WLFI perpetual futures reaching around 2.87% every eight hours, or an annualized borrowing cost close to 131%; and a spike in WLFI trading volume to about $474 million, or roughly 21.7 times its normal level.
Although the report’s author, Mike Marshall, is cautious not to assert that insider trading occurred, he contends that the timing is hard to deny. “It’s difficult to write off a five-hour lead time as a coincidence,” Marshall told Cointelegraph. “That duration is what distinguishes a statistical artifact from a warning that is actually actionable.”
According to the research, the process that connected WLFI to the wider crisis involves leverage: traders who had used WLFI as collateral were compelled to sell liquid assets like Bitcoin and Ether to cover their positions when it experienced a significant decline in value, which triggered off a series of market-wide liquidations. Marshall pointed out that during the episode, the realized volatility of WLFI was almost eight times that of Bitcoin. The trading surge also seemed to be “instrument-specific,” concentrated in WLFI rather than dispersed throughout the crypto complex, indicating that it was more than just a case of experienced traders reading tariff headlines more quickly than the general public.
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