Silver Rebounds to $79 as J.P. Morgan Sets $85 Target: Is the ‘Poor Man’s Gold’ Ready to Lead?
Silver is making a strong comeback today, showing its resilience as a valuable metal. After dropping from the $120 highs in early January...
Quick overview
- Silver has rebounded 2.2% today, trading at $79.33 per ounce, despite a recent correction from January highs.
- J.P. Morgan forecasts an average silver price of $81 per ounce by year-end, driven by strong industrial demand and ongoing supply shortages.
- The global silver market is in its sixth consecutive year of deficit, with a projected shortfall of 67 million ounces in 2026.
- Technical analysis suggests that if silver closes above $79.10, it could rise to $82.40, indicating potential bullish momentum.
Silver is making a strong comeback today, showing its resilience as a valuable metal. After dropping from the $120 highs in early January, spot silver (XAG/USD) has jumped 2.2% today, returning to $79.00. This move has surprised both retail investors and large institutions.
Gold may be in the spotlight as it approaches $5,000, but silver is showing stronger performance in the charts. J.P. Morgan predicts an $85 average by year-end, and with supply shortages now in their sixth year, the real question is how high silver can go.
The Current Pulse: Silver Price Today
By midday on February 19, 2026, silver trades at $79.33 per ounce, up from yesterday’s low near $77. In the main physical markets, prices are even more active:
- Global Spot: $79.14 – $79.37 (Rebounding +2.3%)
- India (MCX Futures): Surged to Rs 2,47,000+ per kg, with retail rates in Delhi hitting Rs 2,54,900.
- Despite a recent 36% correction from January highs, silver is still up 140% compared to last year.
The $81 Reality Check: J.P. Morgan’s “Higher Floor” Thesis
J.P. Morgan Global Research’s 2026 outlook sets an average target of $81 per ounce for silver, with a possible peak of $85 in the fourth quarter.
The bank’s analysts say this is not a “bubble,” but a “structural re-rating.” Unlike the speculative spikes in 2011, current prices are supported by strong industrial demand:
- Solar Surge: Despite “thrifting” (using less silver per panel), total global solar installations are so massive that consumption is projected to hit a 4-year high.
- The AI Premium: Silver’s unmatched conductivity makes it essential for the massive data centers powering 2026’s AI revolution.
- Supply Rigidity: Supply is tight because 70% of silver comes as a byproduct of copper and zinc mining. Even with prices at $80 per ounce, miners cannot quickly increase silver production.
The Sixth Deficit: A Market Running on Fumes?
The Silver Institute’s 2026 Market Outlook reports that the global silver market is in its sixth straight year of deficit, with a shortfall projected at 67 million ounces.
| Demand Source | 2026 Outlook | Impact on Price |
| Industrial Fabrication | ~650 Million Oz | Bullish (Data centers & EVs offsetting solar thrifting) |
| Physical Investment | +20% (3-year high) | Strongly Bullish (Western retail buyers returning) |
| Jewelry & Silverware | -9% Decline | Bearish (Price sensitivity in India/China) |
| Mining Supply | +1.5% Growth | Neutral (Ten-year highs but still not enough) |
Silver (XAG/USD) Technical Breakdown: The $79.10 Breakout
Analysts note that silver is trading within a symmetrical triangle pattern. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $78.93 has been a key level for weeks, and today’s move above it is an important technical signal.
The Trade Idea:
- Bull Case: If silver closes above $79.10, it could rise to $82.40, with the next major resistance at $86.34.
- Bear Case: If silver falls below $78, it may test the $75.00 support level.
- RSI Check: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at a neutral 55, indicating there is still room for silver to rise before the market is considered overbought.
The Verdict: Opportunity or Overheated?
For new investors, silver’s price swings can be intimidating. For experienced traders, this is a classic reaccumulation phase. With the gold-to-silver ratio still showing that silver is undervalued compared to gold, silver appears to be a smart choice for the rest of 2026.
- Check out our free forex signals
- Follow the top economic events on FX Leaders economic calendar
- Trade better, discover more Forex Trading Strategies
- Open a FREE Trading Account
- Read our latest reviews on: Avatrade, Exness, HFM and XM
Save