Bitcoin Breakout or Trap? BTC Holds $68K Amid “Extreme Fear” as Feb 24 Tariff Shock Looms
The Bitcoin market is experiencing significant uncertainty. On Saturday, Bitcoin traded between $68,458 and $68,631...
Quick overview
- The Bitcoin market is facing significant uncertainty, with prices fluctuating between $68,458 and $68,631 after a steep decline in February.
- Concerns about Bitcoin's future are heightened by the Fear & Greed Index showing extreme fear and the upcoming February 24 tariff deadline.
- Technical analysis suggests that a price movement above $69,000 could trigger a massive short squeeze, potentially liquidating over $800 million.
- Despite bearish short-term sentiment, Bitcoin's fundamentals remain strong, indicating a potential for recovery as it matures as an asset.
The Bitcoin market is experiencing significant uncertainty. On Saturday, Bitcoin traded between $68,458 and $68,631 as it tries to recover from a difficult February, when its price dropped more than 45% from the October peak of $126,000.
A 1.6% intraday gain has provided some optimism for smaller investors, but concerns remain about Bitcoin’s future. The Fear & Greed Index is at historic lows between 7 and 14, showing extreme fear. Many traders are closely watching the February 24 deadline, which could significantly impact the market.
The $800 Million Short Squeeze: Why $69,000 is the Kill Zone
Bitcoin is currently trading just below $69,000. Technical data shows that if the price moves above this level, it could trigger liquidations totaling over $800 million.
The Dynamics of the Squeeze:
- Short Gamma Pressure: Dealers are currently short gamma in the $58,000 to $70,000 range. This means they need to buy Bitcoin as the price rises, which could speed up any upward movement.
- Leverage Reset: The sharp sell-off in early February removed billions in weaker long positions. This could make it easier for Bitcoin to reach $70,000 if broader market conditions are favorable.
The Feb 24 Tariff Cliff: Why the Market is Terrified
The main challenge for Bitcoin right now is not technical but geopolitical. Recent U.S. Supreme Court rulings have allowed for a major change in trade policy, with new 10% global import taxes scheduled to start on February 24, 2026.
The “Tariff Shock” Impact:
- Macro Divergence: Gold is reaching all-time highs as a policy hedge, but Bitcoin is currently seen as an asset that is sensitive to liquidity changes.
- USD Strength: If tariffs cause investors to move to the U.S. Dollar, Bitcoin could drop toward the $60,000 support level.
- ETF Jitters: While BlackRock’s IBIT snapped a losing streak with a $64.5 million inflow on Feb 20, the broader trend shows five weeks of cumulative outflows totaling $3.8 billion.
Fundamental Analysis: The “Halving Cycle” is Dead
After more than ten years of analysis, I believe the most surprising development in 2026 is the end of the traditional Bitcoin halving cycle.
Institutional investments through ETFs now account for twelve times the daily mining supply. This change has separated Bitcoin from its four-year cycle, making it more responsive to the Nasdaq 100 and Federal Reserve liquidity than to miner rewards.
| Metric | Current Status | Market Sentiment |
| Fear & Greed | 14 (Extreme Fear) | Bullish Contra-Indicator |
| Daily Transactions | 512K (Down from 700K) | Bearish (Low Activity) |
| Whale Behavior | Trimmed holdings by 0.8% | Institutional Caution |
| ETF AUM | ~$97 Billion | Structurally Resilient |
Weekly Analysis: Breaking the “February Curse”
BTC/USD starts the new week holding above the $67,180 support zone (0.236 Fibonacci). The upward trendline from the $60,000 low is still in place, which suggests that experienced investors are buying the dip, while online searches for “Bitcoin going to zero” have reached a record high.
Key Levels to Watch:
- Resistance: The first key level is $71,650. If Bitcoin closes above this level for the day, the next target is $75,238.
- Support: Support: Bitcoin needs to stay above $67,180. If it falls below this level, the next support is at $63,450.
Trade Idea: The $71K Breakout Play
Traders looking to benefit from a possible price squeeze should wait until the effects of the February 24 tariff changes are clearer.
- Buy Signal: Long above $71,650
- Target: $75,238 (TP1) | $78,000 (TP2)
- Stop Loss: Below $67,000
Final Outlook: Bitcoin is going through a difficult adjustment as it becomes a more mature asset. Although the short-term outlook is bearish because of policy uncertainty, the network’s fundamentals are still strong.
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