WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast: $65 Floor in Peril? Iran “Peace Hopes” Trigger 1.5% Intraday Slump
The Lowdown: WTI Crude Oil is backpedalling from six-month highs on February 23, 2026, with prices dropping to $65.50...
Quick overview
- WTI Crude Oil prices have dropped to $65.50, retreating from six-month highs as optimism around US-Iran nuclear talks fades.
- The International Energy Agency has cut its global demand growth forecast for 2026, contributing to bearish sentiment in the market.
- Record production from non-OPEC+ suppliers is expected to create a structural surplus, capping any long-term price rallies above $67.
- Analysts predict a volatile 2026, with geopolitical shocks causing short-term spikes against a backdrop of fundamental oversupply.
The Lowdown: WTI Crude Oil is backpedalling from six-month highs on February 23, 2026, with prices dropping to $65.50 as optimism around US-Iran nuclear talks starts to fade the ‘war premium’. With the IEA cutting its demand forecast and a clear rejection at $67.03, we’re taking a closer look at whether oil is headed for a deeper correction towards $63 or if OPEC+ discipline can rescue the rally.
Market Update: Geopolitical Premium Takes a Hit as Oil Falls 1.5%
The ‘war premium’ that sent WTI Crude soaring to $67 just a few weeks ago is being put to the test. On February 23, 2026, USOIL took a 1.5% intraday hit, trading between $65.50 and $66.00 per barrel.
- WTI Spot/Futures: Right now its trading at $65.55 – a pretty sharp reversal from that $67.03 mid-February peak.
- Brent Crude: The global benchmark isn’t doing much better, down 1.3% and trading near $70.40.
What’s Behind the Sudden Shift in Oil Prices? The “De-escalation” Factor
The main driver behind today’s bearish price action is a sudden shift in the geopolitical narrative in the Middle East.
1.US-Iran Nuclear Deal Breakthrough?
Market players are pricing in progress on a potential US-Iran nuclear deal, with reports of an “understanding on guiding principles” between Tehran and Washington having taken some of the threat of military strikes or blockades off the table . As the fear of a conflict diminishes, a lot of speculative bets on rising oil prices are getting unwound.
- The IEA’s Demand Reality Check
Adding to the bearish mood , the International Energy Agency has cut its global demand growth forecast for 2026 all the way down to 850,000 b/d. This puts it at odds with OPEC’s more upbeat +1.4 mb/d projection . The IEA’s warning of a surplus coming due to growth from non-OPEC+ suppliers is really weighing on long-term sentiment.
- Non-OPEC+ Supply Growth Out of Control
While OPEC+ is sticking to its production quotas through March, record level production from the US, Brazil, and Guyana is expected to add +2.4 mb/d to global supply in 2026 . This structural surplus narrative is capping any long-term rally above $67.
WTI Technical Analysis: Rejection at $67.03 Suggests a Move to $64.45
The 4 hour chart for WTI Crude shows pretty clearly that price has rejected the $67.03 resistance level which is right at a critical horizontal supply zone .
- Fibonacci Levels: Price has already slipped below the 0.236 fib level ($65.81) so its now resistance.
- Downside Targets: Momentum suggests a further test of the 0.382 fib at $65.05 – then potentially a deeper path towards $64.45 (0.5 fib) and $63.84 (0.618 fib)
- Dynamic Support: As long as oil manages to stay above the 50 period moving average ($63.78) and the 200 period MA ($62.47) the broader structure remains intact.
2026 Oil Forecast: Volatility Amid Surplus Risks
Analysts are bracing for a year of “two halves,” where geopolitical shocks provide short-term spikes against a backdrop of fundamental oversupply.
| Scenario | Target Price (WTI) | Primary Driver |
| Bullish Case | $70.00+ | Failed Iran talks & persistent inventory draws |
| Base Case | $67.00 | OPEC+ discipline balancing high U.S. output |
| Bearish Case | $50.00s | IEA surplus forecast & successful nuclear deal |
Bottom Line: The long term trend remains solid within an ascending channel – but today’s dip is a necessary cooling phase as the geopolitical fever breaks. Bulls need to keep an eye on the $64.00 support zone to stop a total breakdown.
Trade Idea: Sell below $65.00 aiming for $64.45 – with a protective stop loss above $66.50.
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