Ethereum Holds $1,800 as Bears Grip the Market, But On-Chain Whales Are Quietly Buying
Ethereum (ETH) continues to navigate a turbulent February, currently holding steady at $1,800 but facing a confluence of technical breakdown
Quick overview
- Ethereum is currently trading between $1,800 and $1,842, down about 1.22% in the last day, amidst a confirmed technical downtrend.
- Despite bearish sentiment and significant sales by co-founder Vitalik Buterin, advanced on-chain data indicates strong accumulation by whales.
- The Dollar Index's decline may provide a macro tailwind for Ethereum, as historical trends show that ETH rallies often follow DXY decreases.
- Three potential price scenarios for ETH include bearish continuation, range repair, and an oversold rebound, depending on market conditions.
As the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization struggles with a confirmed technical downtrend, growing bearish sentiment, and a series of headline-grabbing sales by co-founder Vitalik Buterin, Ethereum ETH/USD is currently trading between $1,800 and $1,842, down about 1.22% over the last day. However, beyond the surface, advanced on-chain data reveals a more nuanced picture that might be more significant in the coming 12 months than in the coming 12 days.
Bears in Control: ETH Trades Below Every Key Moving Average
There is little doubt that the technical picture is negative. With ETH currently trading below its 30-day average ($1,893), 200-day average ($1,958), and 7-day simple moving average ($1,860), there is a structural breakdown that suggests sellers, not buyers, are dictating the direction of the market. The ADX is close to 47, confirming that this is a strong, directed trend rather than sideways noise, and the RSI is between 38 and 31.5, just shy of the oversold threshold.
Volume is perhaps the most telling. In a single day, spot trade jumped 69.55% to $21.19 billion, indicating that sellers were there with conviction and that the loss was not the result of a thin-market drift. With daily swings now ranging from $150 to $160, almost three times the $50 to $70 range observed in calmer conditions, the Average True Range has also significantly expanded.
Vitalik’s Sales Add Psychological Pressure, But Context Matters
Over the course of two days, Vitalik Buterin sold about 1,869 ETH, or about $3.7 million, increasing his February total to about 8,800 ETH, or $16 million. The market has taken note, as seen by at least one significant price decline of about 23% that matched a previous sale of 6,958-ETH.
The $16 million represents only 0.1% of Ethereum’s normal daily turnover, thus the direct market impact is minimal. However, timing is crucial: a narrative that rallies are for de-risking rather than accumulation is reinforced by frequent founder sells during a volatile market. Buterin has previously claimed that significant withdrawals were meant to finance ecosystem efforts rather than an exit, and he currently has over 224,000 ETH, or almost $430 million. However, there is actual psychological harm in a “Extreme Fear” setting (Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 11).
Ether Whales Are Accumulating While Headlines Stay Negative
On-chain data displays one of the most powerful accumulation spurts in recent memory, which stands in stark contrast to the bearish tape. Over $490.9 million, or almost 2.4 times the daily average, transferred into newly formed wallets in a single 24-hour period. About 30 times the usual inflow, or $39.2 million, was added by whale wallets. Net outflows of $56.9 million were recorded by exchanges, which is consistent with long-term investors removing coins from platforms. ETH is marked as historically oversold by MVRV measures, a criterion that has historically come before multi-month recoveries.
The Dollar Index Factor: A Macro Tailwind Building?
There is a well-established negative relationship between ETH and the US Dollar Index (DXY), according to cryptocurrency specialist Trader Tardigrade. The DXY is currently falling and trading close to 97.8, having fallen below long-term support. Strong Ethereum rallies have historically followed DXY decreases; this correlation is thought to be responsible for 40–60% of ETH’s volatility during changes in monetary policy. Over the upcoming weeks, ETH may benefit from a significant macro tailwind if dollar weakness persists.
Ethereum Price Prediction: Three Scenarios to Watch
- Bearish continuation: The bottom of the current downward corridor, the $1,370 band, may be reached if a firm closing below the $1,838 swing low opens the door to $1,770, followed by $1,525–1,455.
- Range repair: As volatility contracts, ETH holds $1,770–$1,844, recovers $2,000, and grinds toward $2,250. The first reliable indication that the downtrend is waning would be a sustained close over $2,250.
- Oversold rebound: A stronger rise through $2,000 toward $2,250–$2,350 is driven by whale accumulation and short covering, before consolidation returns below the 50-day average at $2,683.
ETH would require consistent dollar weakening, strengthening derivatives metrics, and—most importantly—a reversal in U.S. demand in order to fully rebound above $3,000. The fact that the Coinbase Premium Index is still negative indicates that American buyers have not yet made a significant investment. The strongest Ethereum bull legs in the past have necessitated that modification.
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