Gold Fever 2026: Why XAU/USD Could Smash $6,000 as “Tariff Chaos” Re-Ignites
Gold is experiencing a period of high volatility, trading between $5,150 and $5,230 per ounce. Even with a small 1% drop from yesterday’s...
Quick overview
- Gold is currently volatile, trading between $5,150 and $5,230 per ounce, but remains in a strong bull market despite a recent 1% drop.
- Central banks are rapidly increasing gold purchases, and geopolitical tensions are driving safe-haven demand, making a rise to $6,000 more plausible.
- The current pullback in gold prices is viewed as a healthy mean reversion, with key support at $5,108 indicating a bullish trend if maintained.
- Analysts predict gold could reach between $5,400 and $6,200 by late 2026, with some models suggesting even higher prices in the event of prolonged geopolitical instability.
Gold is experiencing a period of high volatility, trading between $5,150 and $5,230 per ounce. Even with a small 1% drop from yesterday’s three-week high, the overall bull market trend is still strong.
With tariff issues back in Washington and central banks buying gold faster than ever, reaching $6,000 now seems more likely.
The “Trump Tariff” Chaos: Gold’s New Fuel
On February 23, gold prices jumped more than 2%, reaching a high near $5,228. This happened after the US Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s global tariff plans late last week.
Gold Fever 2026: Why XAU/USD Could Smash $6,000 as “Tariff Chaos” Re-Ignites
Trump quickly responded by promising to raise tariffs to 15%, which has renewed worries about a global trade war. For traders, this means:
- Safe-Haven Demand: Heightened geopolitical tensions between Washington and Tehran.
- Fiscal Anxiety: Renewed concerns over the spiraling US budget deficit.
- Policy Uncertainty: A “chaos” premium being priced into precious metals.
Understanding the “Healthy” Pullback
As of early trading today, gold has softened to around $5,150–$5,173. As a seasoned analyst, I view this not as a reversal, but as mean reversion.
- US Dollar Strength: A firmer greenback is exerting temporary pressure.
- Profit Taking: After a 75% gain since early 2025, some cooling is expected.
- McGlone’s Warning: Mike McGlone from Bloomberg Intelligence warns that gold’s price compared to other commodities and yields is unusually high, which could mean weaker performance if things return to normal.
Structural Pillars: Why This Bull Run is Different
Unlike past speculative bubbles, the 2026 gold rally is built on a solid foundation:
1. Central Bank De-Dollarization
Central banks are expected to buy 800–1,000 tonnes of gold in 2026, about 26% of total mine supply. This move away from the dollar helps keep gold prices supported.
2. The Supply “Cliff”
While prices are at record highs, mine production remains stagnant. With many major mines facing exhaustion by the late 2020s, the market is entering a structural supply deficit.
3. Institutional FOMO
After a record year in 2025 with demand over 5,000 tonnes, money continues to flow steadily into ETFs and gold bars and coins.
Gold (XAU/USD) Technical Outlook: The Path to $5,442
From a technical perspective, gold’s “ascending structure” is a textbook example of a trend continuation pattern.
- Key Support: $5,108. As long as XAU/USD holds above this zone, the bias is aggressively bullish.
- Next Targets: Bulls are currently eyeing $5,257. A clean break there opens the door to $5,442, the site of a prior major rejection.
- Trend Context: Higher lows are forming along a rising trendline originating from $4,705 in early February, confirming that the “U-shaped” recovery is in full swing.
Analyst Consensus: Where is the Ceiling?
The “Big Bank” forecasts for late 2026 and 2027 are increasingly bold:
- Goldman Sachs/UBS: Eyeing $5,400–$6,200+.
- P. Morgan: Targeting $5,000 by Q4, with a long-term stretch to $6,000.
- The Outliers: Some aggressive models now suggest $7,000 is possible in an extended geopolitical crisis.
Gold (XAU/USD) The Final Verdict
If you’re new to gold trading, don’t worry about small 1% drops. In a bull market, these dips are buying opportunities. For experienced traders, watch the $5,108 support level. As long as gold stays above it, the trend toward $5,400 is likely to continue.
Trade idea: Consider buying if gold dips toward $5,108, with targets at $5,257 and $5,442. Place your stop-loss below $4,963 to manage risk from volatility.
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