Silver Price Forecast: Bulls Eye $90 Breakout as COMEX “Delivery Crisis” Meets $84.50 Fibonacci Support

Quick overview

The “White Metal” is a high-stakes battleground right now where fear of global conflict is pitted against an enormous physical shortage of silver. As of Friday, March 6, 2026, silver (XAG/USD) is trading around $84.53-$85.37, recovering from a pretty intense “clear-out” earlier in the week.

Silver did leap to a whopping $96.93 March 2 – and that was largely thanks to the worsening U.S.-Iran-Israel conflict. But with a 11% crash toward $82.46 things have gotten interesting and set the stage for a “Second Wave” rally. With tensions in the Strait of Hormuz still running hot and the COMEX facing a delivery nightmare, silver’s high-risk nature is outperforming gold at the moment.

The “Delivery Crisis”: Why COMEX registered Silver is Vanishing

Beyond the news out of the Middle East, the silver market on the COMEX is running into a brick wall. For the first time in years, the COMEX registered inventory just can’t keep up with the demand for deliveries.

• Physical Shortages: Reports are coming in of trading freezes this week because sell orders briefly overpowered available physical inventory, highlighting the gulf between paper contracts and actual metal.
• The 67.2 Million Ounce Deficit: The Silver Institute says 2026 marks the sixth year running that we’re seeing a structural deficit. China’s new restrictions on refined silver exports as of January 2026 have made the global shortage a reality – not a theory.
• The Central Banks Are Rotating: In a rare move, emerging market central banks – who have traditionally been gold buyers – are adding silver to their reserves for diversification as part of the “De-dollarization” trend.

Technical Analysis: The $85.40 “Golden Hurdle”

On the 4 hour chart, silver has gone from a crazy spike to a highly structured correction – and we’re currently watching it fight to get above $85.40.

• The Fibonacci Floor: That recent dip found a perfect floor near the $82.31 level (the 0.236 retracement), which matches up with the $78-$82 primary demand zone.
• The Cluster of Resistances: XAG/USD is in a tough spot right now fighting the 50 and 100 EMAs which are converging at $85.20-$85.40. If we see a clean close above $85.40, that’s our buy signal to shoot for the 0.5 Fibonacci level at $87.10.
• RSI Recovering: The Relative Strength Index is out of oversold territory – that tells us the “panic selling” is over and we’re in the “price discovery” phase, which is a good thing for the bulls.

2026 Forecast: From $81 Average to $300 “Moonshot”

While J.P. Morgan is playing it safe with a 2026 average forecast of just $81, the numbers on the ground suggest a much higher price ceiling.

• The Gold: Silver Ratio Looks Questionable: The current ratio of 59:1 to 62:1 is getting a bit out of whack – and Bank of America is saying the ratio could collapse to 32:1 by year end as silver’s industrial demand far outstrips supply.
• Short Term Outlook: If the situation in the Middle East doesn’t resolve by the weekend, we could see silver make a move back up to the $95-$100 psychological barrier by the end of the month.

The Analyst’s Verdict: A High-Beta Opportunity

The current $84.50 zone seems to be a  “re-entry” point for long-term bulls. The combination of a 67-million-ounce deficit and a naval war in the Indian Ocean is a “perfect storm” for silver prices.

Trade Idea: Look for long positions above $85.40, targeting $87.10 and $89.24.
Stop Loss: Place below $82.00 to protect against a deeper retracement toward the $78 demand zone.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.

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