Gold Weekly Outlook: $4,675 Holds Fibonacci Support After NFP Shock – Can Bulls Clear $4,700?

Quick overview

XAU/USD closed around $4,675 over the weekend of April 4, 2026, after March’s strong NFP report briefly supported the idea of higher rates for longer. Gold starts the new week above the $4,631 Fibonacci support and its rising trendline, but the 200-SMA at $4,704 is still the key level bulls need to break to continue the move toward $4,805.

The NFP Shock: What +178,000 Means for Gold

Friday’s March jobs report was much stronger than expected, with 178,000 jobs added compared to the 59,000–65,000 forecast. This followed a revised loss of 133,000 jobs in February. Unemployment fell to 4.3%. Because markets were closed for Good Friday, the immediate reaction was muted, but the message is clear.

A strong NFP report usually puts pressure on gold. It shows the labor market is strong, lowers the chances of Fed rate cuts, boosts the dollar, and lifts Treasury yields. The 10-year yield is steady at 4.85%. According to CME FedWatch, there is no chance of a rate cut in April.

However, the details of the report make the outlook less aggressive. Average hourly earnings rose just 0.2% for the month and 3.5% over the year, which is weaker than in previous months. The drop in unemployment was partly due to people leaving the workforce, not just more hiring. The next important data to watch are the FOMC minutes on April 8 and the US CPI report.

Gold Technical Analysis: 200-SMA as the Week’s Gate

On the 4-hour chart, gold is making higher lows above the rising trendline from the late March $4,100 low. Recent candles with long lower wicks show buyers are stepping in on dips. Gold is steady near the 50-SMA, but the 200-SMA around $4,704 is still blocking further gains.

• Support: $4,631 (0.382 Fibonacci / ascending trendline) → $4,577 (0.5 Fibonacci) → $4,500 (structural).
• Resistance: $4,704 (200-SMA) → $4,805 (prior swing high / 0.618 Fibonacci) → $4,993 (next supply zone).

The RSI is at 52, which shows neutral momentum with a slight bullish tilt. It is not overbought, so there is room for a continued move higher if broader conditions allow.

Trade setup (bullish above 200-SMA): Buy above $4,704 | Target $4,805 | Stop below $4,631.

FAQ: Gold April Outlook – NFP Impact, FOMC Minutes, and $4,805 Target

How does the strong March NFP affect gold this week?

A gain of 178,000 jobs makes it less likely the Fed will cut rates soon, which supports the dollar and Treasury yields—both of which are negatives for gold. Still, slower wage growth (up 0.2% month-on-month) and the quiet Good Friday session kept the immediate reaction muted. The FOMC minutes on April 8 and the CPI data will show if the NFP strength is lasting or just a rebound from February’s drop.

What is the key level gold must hold this week?

$4,631 is the first key support, where the 0.382 Fibonacci level meets the rising trendline from late March. If gold closes below $4,631 for the day, it could fall to $4,577 and possibly test the $4,500 support. As long as $4,631 holds, the overall recovery remains in place.

What is the gold price target for Q2 2026?

If gold breaks above $4,704 (the 200-SMA), the next targets are $4,805 and then $4,993. JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs both expect gold to trade between $4,000 and $6,300 in 2026. Most analysts are cautiously optimistic for Q2, mainly because central banks are expected to buy 750–900 tonnes this year. However, the April CPI and FOMC minutes will be key for the short-term outlook.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.

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