The bulls have taken control of the WTI Crude Oil futures market. Really, the only question left is how will this week’s market close? Will profit taking win the day?
Is this the beginning of oil's resurrection?
We have discussed crude oil at length this week, touting the run towards $50.00. Currently, September WTI Crude Oil futures are trading just off of the session high of $49.78 up nearly 50 cents.
It has been another day of huge volume, easily eclipsing 500,000 contracts. Participation is robust. No doubt about it.
Moving Into The Weekly Close
As a general rule, short-term traders are not fond of taking home open positions over the weekend. Too many variables come into play, with huge losses possible on Sunday’s open. As a result, we are likely to see a wild close to the U.S. session.
It is important to understand that there are two periods that can be considered the “close” of crude oil futures trading. A lion-share of the action will come near 2:30 PM EST on the traditional “pit” close. The remainder will come at the 5:00 PM EST electronic close.
Technicals
Today has been a continuation of the weekly rally. Crude is poised to close in the green for the 5th straight session.
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Crude Oil 30-Minute Chart
A few observations:
Price has traded with strength above Thursday’s high and continued the march towards $50.00.
On the 30-minute time frame, price has not tested the 38% Fibonacci retracement of the daily range during the U.S. session.
Mid-day compression around 49.75 gives credence to a bullish breakout
All in all, crude has been a great trade this week. However, day traders have to respect the possible chaos on the close. Massive profit taking across the board is certainly a potential reality.
If that is the scenario, intraday longs will be destroyed quickly. The best course of action may be to watch from the sidelines and let the other guy sweat it out.
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