1.75% Rate Hike, Is It Already Priced In? – A Sentiment Analysis of Gold
Arslan Butt • 1 min read
What’s up, traders?
Over the course of two weeks, Gold has consolidated above $1,300 mostly trading with a bearish trend. Today, the economic calendar is full of top-tier events. Gold can determine the new trading zone. Yup, I’m pointing towards the FOMC and Fed rate decision. Can we expect a bullish reversal on a rate hike? Let’s find out…
GOLD – XAUUSD – Sentiment Analysis
It’s been a few days that Gold has been trading bearish for no solid reason. Well, it’s mostly due to the interest rate hike forecast. Investors are selling Gold on rumors, or said more properly, on the rumor of a 1.75% rate forecast. At the same time, they are buying the US dollar. Consequently, Gold prices have fallen and the dollar is flying north.
Let’s say the Fed really hikes the rate to 1.75%, what you will do? Most of you will say, “Sell Gold.” But don’t you think the 1.75% rate is already priced in? I believe it is!
There can be dual movement in the market as 1.75% is something most of us have already traded by short selling Gold at the top. Now it’s time to buy the fact.
Technically, on the release of the 1.75% rate news, we may see Gold sinking towards $1,300 before taking a bullish reversal up to $1,320. The breakage below $1,300 can lead the market towards $1,291 today.
GOLD – XAU/USD – Trading Idea
Today, $1,312 is the key point. Above this, Gold is likely to stay bullish until $1,320. Below $1,312 we may see a drop to $1,300. Good luck!