The FOMC Minutes are Up

USD Index Plunges, 95.000 In View

Posted Monday, January 7, 2019 by
Shain Vernier • 1 min read

95.000 is coming into view for the March USD Index, a level not seen since early November. Rates have fallen out of bed to begin the trading week, extending the losses of the past two sessions. At press time (11:15 AM EST), it appears that a hard test of 95.000 is in the cards for the near future.

There aren’t a whole lot of market-moving items scheduled for the next several sessions. However, today features auctions of the 3 and 6-Month T-bills and a speech from FOMC member Raphael Bostic, CEO of the Atlanta FED. It will be interesting to hear his sentiments regarding the U.S. economy in 2019, specifically pertaining to the U.S. Southeast region.

USD Index Futures

Following a big day to open the trading year, March USD Index futures have taken a bearish turn. Rates have broken south with reckless abandon, returning to 95.000.

March USD Index Futures (DX), Daily Chart
March USD Index Futures (DX), Daily Chart

Overview: Early 2019 is shaping up to be a challenging period for the USD Index. This week may not give the bulls any quarter, as Wednesday’s FOMC Minutes are likely to show a conflicted inner dialogue from the December FED meeting. The vote to hike rates was unanimous ― the path forward is anything but.

If the FOMC Minutes reinforce a tone of conflict and uncertainty, there may be more pain in store for the USD Index.

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