Forex Signals Brief for Apr 10: ECB on Watch
Rowan Crosby • 2 min read
As mentioned, it has been a quiet week on the data front but all that looks set to change today. The main release of interest will, without doubt, be the ECB and the EUR/USD might well be in for some volatility.
The main point of focus will be just how dovish the statement comes in. The word on the street is that ECB President Mario Draghi would like to push out the guidance for a rate hike even beyond what we heard last time around. It is currently to the end of 2019. A further extension would be extremely dovish.
We are also likely to hear more details on the already announced TLTRO which is a dovish move in and of itself.
Outside of the ECB for a moment, we will also be on the lookout for UK GDP, an economy that is really struggling to see much in the way of growth and with the Brexit still hanging over its head.
And finally, there will be US CPI. While the CPI figure is expected to be 2.1% YoY, it appears the FOMC have much more of a broader focus on the economy and this print doesn’t hold the weight it once did. That’s unless we see a big miss.
Forex Signal Update
The FX Leaders Team have a number of signals on at the moment but have closed out very few. Given the busy day we have ahead, we will be likely in and out of a number of positions today.
Gold – Active Signal
GOLD will clearly be on watch the next couple of days ahead of CPI which is always a big focus for gold bugs, as well as the FOMC. A miss on CPI might very well see gold weaken as inflation is really not a concern in the current environment.
EUR/USD – Active Signal
There is plenty of attention on the EUR/USD today and we will wait for the ECB statement with plenty of anticipation. While 1.1200 might be a ways off if Draghi pushes out guidance any further lookout below.
BTC appears to be holding well above the $5,000 level and so far the dips keep getting bought which is a strong sign.
There was a story out today that suggested China wants to ban mining as it is a waste of resources. Namely the power consumption being far too high. Which is a fair point. Ironically BTC is banned there as it is. This hasn’t moved the needle much today but is a story worth following.
Our stop isn’t getting tested just yet although there isn’t much wiggle room left above if we have a big run to $6,000. I would think that would be a pretty major resistance level, given the run that we’ve had in a short period of time.