Forex Signals Brief for Dec 9: Central Banks Lie Ahead
Rowan Crosby • 2 min read
US Market Wrap
On Friday, the risk-on trade got a big boost thanks to yet another huge result in the US employment report.
The US economy added 266,000 jobs in November, the biggest jump in 10 months, while the jobless rate fell to 3.5%.
This is a huge boost for the economy and the FOMC, so that really does reiterate what Fed boss Jerome Powell has been saying. It also likely takes any further cuts off the table – at least for now.
The SPX has been bullish recently thanks to more positive US-China trade talk, so we’ll be looking for more upside with the Santa rally in full swing.
Monday looks like we might have a quiet day in terms of economic data, but the week ahead should be very busy as we head into the Christmas and New Year break.
The top of the agenda this week, will, of course, be the FOMC interest rate decision. This will be the last of the year and as mentioned, Powell has already signalled that further cuts are now unlikely. While there shouldn’t be any shocks, his outlook will be key.
At the same time, we also get to hear from new ECB boss Christine Lagarde. EUR/USD traders have been stuck with Mario Draghi for years who never gave much away. While there is no expectation of any changes to monetary policy, this will be an opportunity to put her stamp on the ECB and give her thoughts on the state of the Eurozone economy.
Forex Signal Update
The FX Leaders Team had a quiet week last time around finishing three and eight from limited opportunities.
USD/JPY – Pending Signal
The USD/JPY saw some positive news today with a stronger than expected GDP print. That didn’t really lift the JPY though and we are still hunting a long signal if the opportunity presents itself.
Oil – Pending Signal
WTI got a nice lift to close out the week as US-China sentiment is high and the strong jobs report certainly didn’t hurt. We are also looking for a long signal here as well. A break of $60 could be that trigger.
BTC managed to have a quiet weekend, but to me, it appears the sellers are still present.
While the downtrend has broken, more by time than price, it does appear that the offers are strong around the $7,600 level.
For a while now, price simply hasn’t been able to bounce and that to me suggests weakness. If it does break through, look for a short sharp rally.
Otherwise, I am still waiting on another test of the $7,000 level.