In Q2 we saw a major decline in the US economy, with the GDP contracting by 31.4%. Although, the situation was the same all over the West, as lock-downs delivered a blow to economic predictions. But, in Q3 the economy rebounded well, expanding by 33.1%. Unlike Europe, the US is keeping the pace of the recovery, despite new restrictions in certain states. Below is the GDP report for Q3:
US third quarter gross domestic product, second estimate:
- US Q3 GDP (second look) +33.1% vs +33.1% expected
- Prelim reading was +33.1%
- Final Q2 reading was -31.4%
With the second estimate, upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment, residential investment, and exports were offset by downward revisions to state and local government spending, private inventory investment, and personal consumption expenditures. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised up.
Details:
- Ex motor vehicles +26.4% vs +26.3% prelim
- Personal consumption +40.7% vs +40.9% expected (prelim +40.7%)
- Corporate profits after tax +27.5%
- GDP price index 3.6% vs +3.6% expected
- Core PCE q/q 3.5% vs +3.5% expected
- Inventories added 6.55 pp to GDP vs 6.62 pp in prelim report (subtracted 3.5 pp in Q2)
- Business investment +21.8% vs +20.3% prelim
- Business investment in equipment +66.6% vs +70.1% prelim
- Exports +60.5% vs +59.7% prelim
- Imports +93.1% vs +91.1% prelim
- Net exports subtracted 3.18 pp from GDP
- Full report
This is very close to expectations and doesn’t tell us much new about what might be coming in Q4 or beyond.
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Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst.
Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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