Forex Signals Brief for June 9: How Hawkish Will the ECB Get?
Skerdian Meta • 3 min read
Yesterday’s Market Wrap
Lately, we have seen some positive revisions for May, which brighten up the future after some dark clouds that we saw in last month’s economic data. On Tuesday we saw a decent upward revision in UK services after the major slowdown in the initial reading for May. Yesterday’s Q1 GDP report from Canada saw a revision up to -0.1% from -0.2% previously, while the Eurozone Q1 GDP was revised higher from 0.3% to 0.6%.
The risk sentiment was mostly mixed yesterday, with stock market and commodity dollars trading in a range, while the Euro made some gains in anticipation of the ECB turning hawkish today. USD/JPY also continued to surge higher as the Bank of Japan is not planning to hike rates and yesterday they confirmed that they will keep the monetary policy loose to fight the economic slowdown, unlike other central banks.
The Data Agenda Today
Today we have the US unemployment claims and the Bank of Canada governor Macklem holding a speech in the US session, although the big event today is the meeting of the European Central Bank. The ECB is not expected to hike interest rates in this meeting, but they will lay out a plan for the future of rate hikes, with markets fully pricing in a 50 BPS rate hike in July. Although the interest is on the policy post July’s hike, so the press conference will be important.
Forex Signals Update
Yesterday we opened several forex signals and commodity signals. The forex trades went pretty well, while the Gold signal reached the SL target. Although, there are a few Oil and USD/JPY signals which are displayed as losing ones, but that was due to a bug in our price feed in Oil, which kept triggering the SL target.
EUR/USD – Buy Signal
This forex pair has been bullish since the middle of last month, although the bullish momentum has slowed and a resistance zone has formed below 1.08. Although the lows keep getting higher, and yesterday my colleague Arslan opened a buy signal at the 100 SMA (green), which has turned into support. This signal reached the TP target after the bounce higher before the ECB meeting today.
EUR/USD – 60 minute chart
GOLD – Sell Signal
Gold turned bearish from Early May until the middle of last month as the USD kept surging higher. But, since then the price has been bouncing up and down in a range. Yesterday, my colleague Arslan opened a sell forex signal here at the 100 SMA (green) after it has been providing resistance before, but buyers pushed above that moving average and hit pour SL target before Gold reversed lower again.
Gold XAU – 60 minute chart
Cryptocurrencies have been bearish since November, although after finding a bottom in early May, they have been trading in a range. We have seen several attempts from buyers trying to turn things around which is a positive thing, but they keep failing and cryptos keep turning lower, apart from Cardano which has been showing some bullish pressure recently.
ETHEREUM – The Support Still Holding but the Highs Keep Getting Lower
After the decline in early March as Terra LUNA capitulated, cryptocurrencies have been trading in a range, with Ethereum finding bottoming out at the previous support zone above $1,700. Although, the highs have been getting lower for Ethereum, as moving averages keep pushing the price down. This could go both ways, so we are waiting to see which way the breakout will be and maybe trade it.
ETH/USD – 240 minute chart
Can the 50 SMA Hold for Cardano?
ADA/USD has been bearish since September last year when it released the Alonzo upgrade, although it took some time for it to become functional and launch auctions. During this time, moving averages have been acting as resistance on the daily chart, with the 50 SMA (yellow) taking over recently, where we opened a sell signal in Cardano yesterday. But as we approach the release date for the Vasil upgrade, investors are showing interest in the ADA token, so there is a chance that they might push above this moving average.