Bitcoin Faces Critical Technical Crossroads as Coinbase Premium Hits 20-Day Streak Above $106,000

Quick overview

Though it dropped 1.8% during the past 24 hours, Bitcoin BTC/USD still holds above the psychologically significant $106,000 barrier. Bitcoin’s resilience comes amid an amazing 20-day run of positive Coinbase Premium Index readings, the longest continuous period in 2025 indicating constant institutional and retail interest from US-based investors.

For three straight weeks, the Coinbase Premium Index, which gauges the price difference between Bitcoin on Coinbase and other big exchanges like Binance, has been within positive territory. This sustained premium, which indicates usually significant institutional interest and possible exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows, reveals that American investors still pay more for Bitcoin access.

On May 26, Coinbase saw a notable net outflow of 8,742 BTC, third-largest outflow in the preceding month, according to crypto expert Burak Kesmeci. These big outflows reflect institutional accumulation behind the scenes, frequently before either ETF inflow surges or corporate treasury statements.

Reduced Selling Pressure Creates Bullish Foundation

Data on on-chain chains shows declining selling pressure from both long-term and short-term Bitcoin holders, therefore providing a more solid basis for possible higher movements. According to CryptoQuant research, current inflows to Binance from long-term holders (LTHs) and short-term holders (STHs) have decreased to roughly 8,000 BTC—much below the 12,000–14,000 levels observed in past market downturns in August 2024 and April 2025.

Axel Adler Jr., a bitcoin researcher, adds that some profit-taking among investors keeping BTC for fewer than 155 days is indicated by the Short-Term Holder SOPR (30-day moving average) lately reaching a local high. The indicator stays somewhat low, though, compared to levels usually observed at significant price peaks, implying that the current surge lacks too great euphoria—a perhaps good indication of ongoing momentum.

BTC/USD Technical Analysis Points to $118,000 Target Amid Pattern Breakout

Technically, Bitcoin seems to be grouping in a declining triangular pattern; chart analysts find a possible breakout target of $118,000. Currently finding support in the $104,000-$106,000 zone, the created daily order block is high-interest for institutional purchasers and represents the cryptocurrency.

The relative strength index (RSI) displays a clear positive divergence with regard to price activity, so producing a key bullish indication. Although Bitcoin has had declining lows in recent sessions, the RSI has been rising higher, usually suggesting declining bearish momentum and preparing for a possible reversal.

Technical analysts advise that a small departure from the current pattern trendline around $107,000 might set off a liquidity sweep, possibly pushing prices under the $104,000-$106,000 support zone before starting a strong comeback toward the $118,000 goal.

Contrasting Views on Short-Term Direction

Not all technical study, nonetheless, suggests quick positive continuation. Recent market action indicates Bitcoin failing below the $107,500 barrier level, while negative momentum indications on shorter timescale are gathering strength. Whereas the RSI has dropped below the neutral 50 mark, the hourly MACD is speeding in bearish territory.

Should Bitcoin fall short of recovering the $107,500 zone, analysts caution of possible downside targeting the $103,200-$104,000 support range, with further noteworthy support not showing until the $101,200 level.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: $270,000 to $400,000 Projections

Several analysts maintain rather optimistic long-term estimates despite temporary technical uncertainty. Analyst Kyle Chassé says Bitcoin might reach $400,000 based on global M2 money supply correlations, noting that Bitcoin generally follows global liquidity expansion with around a 90-day lag.

Though this estimate comes with major time restrictions, crypto expert Dr. Cat estimates a potential $270,000 target utilizing Ichimoku Price Theory’s “4E model,” even more aggressively. Following a projected weekly technical cross on June 9, Bitcoin must reach new all-time highs, Dr. Cat underlines, otherwise risk negating signals will be invalidated.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.

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