GBP/USD Targets 1.3539 as UK Growth Surprises and USD Wavers

Friday’s European session saw GBP/USD rise to 1.3471, bouncing off session lows of 1.3415. The Pound’s strength came after a slew...

Written by: Arslan Butt • Friday, May 30, 2025 • 1 min read

Quick overview

GBP/USD rose to 1.3471 after positive UK economic data, including a Q1 GDP growth of 0.7%.
The IMF upgraded its 2025 UK growth forecast, reducing the likelihood of a Bank of England rate cut in June.
The US Dollar Index fell to 100.10 following a court ruling against Trump's tariffs, increasing global market risk.
Technical analysis suggests GBP/USD is coiling in a symmetrical triangle, with key resistance at 1.3539 and support at 1.3415.

Friday’s European session saw GBP/USD rise to 1.3471, bouncing off session lows of 1.3415. The Pound’s strength came after a slew of positive UK data. The ONS reported Q1 GDP grew 0.7%, beating forecasts and up from 0.1% in Q4 2024. The IMF also upgraded its 2025 UK growth forecast to 1.2% from 1.1%.

This, combined with solid retail sales and sticky inflation, has reduced the chances of a BoE rate cut in June. BOE Governor Bailey’s comments yesterday reinforced the cautious tone, saying the UK economy is resilient despite global uncertainty. Investors are now more confident the BoE will keep rates steady for longer than expected.

Tariff Ruling Reverses USD Gains Amid Market Uncertainty

The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell to 100.10, down from intraday highs of 100.50. The move came after the US Court of International Trade ruled against Trump’s tariffs, citing misuse of the IEEPA. While sector specific tariffs remain, the broader rollback boosted risk globally. But the White House’s appeal leaves the situation open ended with a 10 day window to impose a permanent injunction.

Latest US data:

Prelim GDP Q1 -0.2% vs -0.1% expected
Jobless claims 240,000 vs 225,000 expected
Pending home sales -6.3% vs -2.5% expected
FOMC members Barkin and Goolsbee were cautious on rates

This has reduced the chances of aggressive rate cuts, with futures now pricing in 42 basis points of easing by year end

GBP/USD Technicals: 1.3539 Breakout or 1.3415 Pullback

GBP/USD is coiling in a symmetrical triangle on the 2 hour chart, just below resistance at 1.3511-1.3539. The 50-EMA at 1.3483 is support, with MACD showing early bullish divergence.

GBP/USD PriceChart - Source: Tradingview — GBP/USD PriceChart – Source: Tradingview

Levels to watch:* Resistance: 1.3511, 1.3539, 1.3646, 1.3700.

Support: 1.3450 trendline, 1.3415, 1.3352, 1.3288.

Scenario:

Bullish: Break above 1.3539 and target 1.3646 or higher.
Bearish: Below 1.3415-1.3352 and target 1.3288.

For the trader, wait. Close above 1.3539 with bullish confirmation and long. Break below 1.3415 and short.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.