Forex Signals Brief June 6: NFP Jobs Report in Focus as Fed Weighs Its Next Move

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Markets are bracing for important US jobs data, with Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) setting the tone for economic direction and policy expectations.

US-China Talks Lift Hopes, But Progress Proves Thin

What began as a relatively quiet trading day quickly turned eventful, with news that President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping had held a phone call. The conversation, expected later in the week, came early and briefly buoyed market optimism. However, once details emerged, it became clear the talks had produced little of substance. Still, the arrangement of upcoming high-level negotiations offered some hope that a broader trade agreement could eventually take shape.

U.S.-Canada Trade Discussions Still in Progress

Concurrently, attention remained fixed on trade developments between the U.S. and Canada. Dialogue continued throughout the week, with confirmations from the U.S. ambassador that talks were active. However, whether a meaningful resolution will materialize before the critical G7 summit on June 15 remains an open question. The lack of clarity is keeping market participants cautious.

Musk vs. Trump Drama Rocks Tesla Shares

The biggest jolt to equities came late in the day, as a very public and unusual dispute erupted between Elon Musk and President Trump. Initially stemming from a disagreement over fiscal deficits, the situation escalated dramatically after Musk alleged Trump’s inclusion in the Epstein files and publicly called for his impeachment. In response, Trump announced he would revoke subsidies benefiting Musk’s ventures. Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) shares plummeted 14.3% following the exchange, adding to the day’s tension.

ECB Signals Caution as Rate Cuts Near a Pause

In Europe, the European Central Bank (ECB) delivered a slightly hawkish surprise. Officials hinted at a pause in July following eight consecutive quarter-point rate cuts. Markets had anticipated more easing, but now see only 25 basis points left in the cycle. The euro briefly surged to 1.1494 in response but failed to hold gains, retreating by about 50 pips amid broader dollar volatility and lukewarm response to the US-China news.

Today’s Forex Events

Labor Market Softens, Eyes Turn to US Jobs Report

Looking ahead, U.S. labor data takes center stage. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% in April, up slightly from March’s 0.2% growth. Non-farm payrolls are forecast to increase by 130,000, down from 177,000 previously, with the unemployment rate seen holding steady at 4.2%. Overall, the labor market appears to be loosening, even if headline numbers remain stable.

In Canada, recent data has painted a more worrying picture. The unemployment rate rose to 6.9% in Q1, fueled by a 30,600-job loss in manufacturing—the steepest drop since the pandemic. May’s employment report is expected to show flat hiring, adding pressure on the Bank of Canada to consider rate cuts if the weakness persists into the summer.

Last week, markets were slower than what we’ve seen in recent months, with gold retreating as a result, the EUR/USD falling below 1.12 but returned above 1.14 this week, and stock markets continued upward too. The moves weren’t too big, but we opened 37 trading signals in total, finishing the week with 25 winning signals and 12 losing ones.

Gold Finds Support Amid Global Uncertainty

Gold prices remain elevated, trading near $3,500—a level last seen in April. The precious metal rebounded strongly from lows near $3,200 earlier in the month, bolstered by persistent inflation worries, geopolitical stress, and uncertainty surrounding future Fed policy. While gold appears to be consolidating in a range between $3,120 and $3,500, risk aversion continues to support strong inflows. A decisive break above $3,500 is uncertain, but not off the table if global instability escalates.

USD/JPY Defies Yield Trend as Capital Flows Shift

A curious divergence occurred in USD/JPY trading. Despite falling U.S. Treasury yields, the pair climbed from 143.40 to 144.31. Analysts attribute the move to capital outflows from Japan and large-scale portfolio adjustments, rather than interest rate dynamics. Geopolitical factors and market sentiment appear to be the primary drivers in this instance, underscoring a shift in traditional correlations.

USD/JPY – Daily Chart

Cryptocurrency Update

Bitcoin Dives but the $100K Level Holds

Digital assets are also riding the macroeconomic wave. BITCOIN surged past $110,000, gaining more than 6% over several sessions. Concerns about the U.S. economy, ballooning national debt, and mounting geopolitical tensions have strengthened Bitcoin’s reputation as a hedge against systemic instability. But the 20 SMA turned into resistance and yesterday we saw a dive to $100K in BTC.

BTC/USD – Daily chart

Ethereum Rejected by the 200 SMA

Ethereum joined the rally as well, rising more than 20% since April. The recent Pectra upgrade, which enhances wallet integration and staking capabilities, has sparked renewed institutional interest and added technical momentum to Ether’s performance. But the 200 SMA has been a strong resistance indicator rejecting ETH/USD yesterday.

ETH/USD – Daily Chart

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Skerdian Meta

Lead Analyst

Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.

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