Gold Price Holds $3,297 as Bulls Defend Trendline Amid Fed and China Trade Shifts

Gold started the week under pressure after a stronger than expected US jobs report killed the hopes of near term rate cuts.

Quick overview

  • Gold is under pressure following a stronger US jobs report, with spot gold trading around $3,310 after bouncing from a key trendline.
  • The Labor Department's report of 139,000 new jobs in May has led to expectations of delayed rate cuts from the Fed, now anticipated in October.
  • Easing US-China trade tensions are challenging gold's safe haven appeal, although geopolitical risks remain high due to ongoing military operations in Ukraine.
  • Technically, gold remains in a bullish structure as long as it stays above the May 13 low, with key support at $3,297.

Gold started the week under pressure after a stronger than expected US jobs report killed the hopes of near term rate cuts. As of Tuesday morning spot gold is trading around $3,310 after bouncing from the key trendline at $3,297.

On Monday gold dipped to $3,303 after the Labor Department reported 139,000 new jobs in May, beating expectations. Wage growth was also above forecasts and the unemployment rate stayed at 4.2%. That combination has the Fed delaying rate cuts and now markets are only expecting a rate cut in October.

A stronger US dollar index also added pressure, making gold more expensive for international buyers. President Trump also said he will announce a new Fed chair soon, adding more uncertainty to rate expectations.

US-China Trade Talks & Geopolitical Tension

Gold’s safe haven appeal is being challenged by the easing of US-China trade tensions. Three of President Trump’s top economic advisors are meeting with Chinese officials in London this week to revive talks and ease the long standing trade disputes.

While lower geopolitical risk usually hurts gold, other developments are keeping nerves high. Over the weekend Russia advanced military operations near Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk region and a US travel ban on 12 countries went into effect Monday, both of which could revive interest in gold’s safe haven role.

Gold Technical View: Bulls Defend $3,297 Trendline

From a chart perspective gold is still in a bullish structure as long as price is above the May 13 low. The 2 hour chart shows a hammer forming just above $3,297, a sign that selling momentum is weakening.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

The RSI is at 42.07, still below 50 but recovering.

Key levels to watch:

  • Support: $3,297 (trendline), $3,271, $3,246
  • Resistance: $3,338, $3,375, $3,405

Trade Setup:

  • Entry: Long near $3,297 with bullish confirmation
  • Stop-loss: Below $3,271
  • Target 1: $3,338
  • Target 2: $3,375

Note: RSI above 50 could confirm stronger upside momentum. If gold holds here it can rally. Below $3,297 it’s bearish.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More
Arslan Butt
Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)
Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.

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