JSE Index Eyes 91,442 as Bulls Defy 30% U.S. Tariff Threat and Trade Turmoil

JSE Top 40 defies the storm, closes at 90,087.9 (+0.21%) as Trump reiterates 30% tariff on SA exports from August 1. Analysts say JSE’s

Written by: Arslan Butt • Tuesday, July 8, 2025 • 1 min read

Last updated: Tuesday, July 8, 2025

Quick overview

JSE Top 40 closed at 90,087.9, reflecting cautious optimism amid looming US tariffs on South African exports.
President Ramaphosa counters tariff claims, highlighting existing trade agreements that allow 77% of US exports to enter tariff-free.
The JSE's technical outlook remains bullish, with key support and resistance levels indicating potential for further gains.
The outcome of US-SA trade talks will significantly impact market sentiment and the sustainability of the current rally.

JSE Top 40 defies the storm, closes at 90,087.9 (+0.21%) as Trump reiterates 30% tariff on SA exports from August 1. Analysts say JSE’s rise is cautious optimism that talks will ease the blow. But the bigger picture is still tense. 2035 bond yield up 3 basis points to 9.86%.

Ramaphosa pushes back against tariff claims, citing 7.6% average import tariff and 77% of US exports enter tariff-free under existing agreements. With time running out, both sides are racing to avoid a policy clash that could cost thousands of jobs.

Affected sectors:

Citrus industry: Up to 35,000 jobs at risk
Auto and manufacturing: US demand could collapse
Mining exports: Loss of competitiveness abroad

Technical Outlook: Bullish Channel Intact

Despite policy headwinds, technical momentum on JSE Top 40 remains strong. Price is still in a well-defined bullish channel and buyers are stepping in above 50-period SMA (88,326.7).

JSE Price Chart - Source: Tradingview — JSE Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

Price recently broke 89,608 and that level is now support. A close above 90,246 could trigger more upside to 90,865 and potentially 91,442.

RSI is at 69.36 and approaching overbought but still rising. This is bullish but traders should be cautious of divergence if momentum stalls.

Key levels:

Resistance: 90,246 → 90,865 → 91,442
Support: 89,608 → 88,673 → 88,326 (SMA)

A break above 91,000 would be a big extension if talks de-escalate. But below 88,600 and sentiment could turn quickly.JSE’s strength is impressive but sustainability of this rally depends on US-SA trade talks. De-escalation could fuel more gains for exporters. But if tariffs happen, expect volatility to rise and valuations to be tested.

For now, investors are walking a tightrope between momentum and risk. Whether we go to 91,442 or 88,600 will be decided in the next few weeks in Washington.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.