XRP Price Rebounds to $3.20: Can It Break $3.45 After $1.9B Futures Drop?
Ripple’s XRP fell after reaching a new yearly high of $3.66 on July 18, dropping steadily in the following sessions.
Quick overview
- Ripple's XRP experienced a significant drop after reaching a yearly high of $3.66, falling below $3.00 amid declining blockchain activity.
- Active Addresses on the XRP Ledger decreased by 44%, indicating reduced speculative interest and weakening bullish momentum.
- The futures market saw a $1.94 billion drop in Open Interest, reflecting cautious sentiment among leveraged traders.
- Despite recent bearish trends, XRP shows potential for recovery with bullish chart patterns and key resistance levels to watch.
Ripple’s XRP fell after reaching a new yearly high of $3.66 on July 18, dropping steadily in the following sessions. The correction intensified as XRP went below $3.00, testing investor conviction. At one point it traded as low as $2.9983 and then rebounded to $3.20 by Friday.
What caused the drop? A big decline in blockchain activity. According to CryptoQuant, Active Addresses on the XRP Ledger fell 44% from 50,482 to just under 28,000. That’s a big drop in speculative interest – an important factor in sustaining the bullish momentum.
At the same time the Altcoin Season Index has dropped from 59 to 45, further showing waning interest in high-beta assets like XRP. Despite the bounce the broader altcoin narrative has cooled and XRP is still vulnerable unless participation and sentiment comes back.
Derivatives Market Pullback Means Doubt
The futures market tells the same story. Open Interest (OI) on XRP futures has dropped from $10.94 billion to $9 billion in 3 days – a $1.94 billion exodus. That’s a big pullback and means leveraged traders are taking risk off the table, likely spooked by volatility and fading upside conviction.
Meanwhile funding rates have gone from positive to neutral and in some cases negative. When this happens it means fewer traders are willing to pay to hold long positions. The sentiment is shifting from aggressive longs to cautious observation.
Bullish signals:
- $1.94B drop in Open Interest
- Funding rates going neutral-to-negative
- MACD crossover showing short-term sell signal
Until we see a sustained increase in volume and funding, XRP will likely be capped below key resistance.
XRP/USD Technicals Show Breakout Potential
Despite the recent bearish pressure the chart is showing signs of recovery. XRP/USD has formed a series of higher lows, bounced off $2.9983 and is holding above the 100-period EMA ($3.08).
Price is now testing the 50-period EMA at $3.23 and setting up a potential ascending triangle breakout.The latest candles are bullish—bullish engulfing and a hammer candle rejecting sub-$3.10 lows indicate buyer interest is back.
The RSI is up from the mid-40s and not overbought yet.
Levels to watch:
- Resistance: $3.2657, $3.4560
- Support: $2.9983, $2.8123
- EMA barriers: 50-EMA at $3.23, 100-EMA at $3.08
If XRP closes above $3.27 it will likely go to $3.45. Until then it’s a consolidation game—but momentum is on the side of the bulls.
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