Weekly Gold Price Forecast: NFP Miss Fuels Breakout, Eyes on $3,472
Gold surges past $3,346 after soft NFP data. Bulls eye $3,394 and $3,472. Watch key support at $3,342 ahead of CPI, PMI, and Fed speeches...
Quick overview
- Gold prices surged after disappointing Non-Farm Payroll data showed only 73,000 jobs added in July, well below expectations.
- The breakout above the $3,346 resistance level indicates bullish momentum, with potential targets at $3,394 and $3,472.
- Upcoming economic data, particularly the ISM Services PMI and jobless claims, could influence gold's rally or trigger a pullback.
- Traders remain cautious as RSI approaches overbought levels, suggesting the possibility of profit-taking.
Gold bulls finally caught a break after Friday’s disappointing Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data sent shockwaves through markets. The U.S. economy added just 73,000 jobs in July, falling well short of the 106,000 forecast, and marking a steep drop from June’s upwardly revised 14,000. While wages held steady with 0.3% m/m growth and unemployment remained unchanged at 4.2%, the miss sparked immediate Dollar weakness—and gold took full advantage.
XAU/USD surged above the $3,346 resistance zone, breaking out of a descending channel and climbing toward the $3,363 level. With the labor market showing cracks and Fed policymakers expressing caution, traders are beginning to price in a slower pace of tightening—or even cuts by year-end.
Next Week’s Calendar: All Eyes on Services PMI, Fed Speak
The week ahead is packed with market-moving events that could extend—or challenge—gold’s rally:
-
Tuesday (Aug 5): ISM Services PMI (Forecast: 51.5), Trade Balance
-
Wednesday: Crude Oil Inventories, FOMC speeches by Daly, Collins, Cook
-
Thursday: Jobless Claims (Forecast: 221K), Productivity & Labor Costs
-
Friday: FOMC Member Musalem speaks
These events, especially the ISM Services PMI and jobless claims, will offer critical insight into consumer resilience and Fed outlook. A miss in services data or dovish Fed tone could push gold higher. On the other hand, stronger-than-expected data may trigger a corrective pullback.
Gold Price Technical Outlook: Key Levels to Watch
Gold’s bullish breakout above the 50-SMA ($3,342) is technically significant. Momentum indicators are strong—RSI currently sits at 65.69—while price targets are forming based on Fibonacci retracements and previous highs.
Upside levels to monitor:
-
$3,394 – Initial target and previous support turned resistance
-
$3,439 – Upper channel target
-
$3,472 – June high and next major resistance
Downside support if momentum fades:
-
$3,346 – Key horizontal breakout level
-
$3,310 – Near-term psychological support
-
$3,275 – Lower channel base and strong demand zone
If gold can hold above the $3,346–$3,342 zone, bulls remain in control. However, profit-taking ahead of data risks a short-term retest. RSI creeping near overbought levels also suggests some caution.
Summary:
-
Bullish scenario: Continued rally toward $3,394 and $3,472 if macro data weakens
-
Bearish scenario: Break below $3,342 reopens downside to $3,275
-
Bias: Bullish, contingent on holding above 50-SMA and data tone
- Check out our free forex signals
- Follow the top economic events on FX Leaders economic calendar
- Trade better, discover more Forex Trading Strategies
- Open a FREE Trading Account
Save