Forex Brief August 4: OPEC+, Jobs, Central Banks, and Trade Signals

This week brings a heavy slate of economic data and central bank decisions, alongside an OPEC+ meeting that could steer energy markets.

Written by: Skerdian Meta • Monday, August 4, 2025 • 4 min read

• Last updated: Sunday, August 3, 2025

Quick overview

This week features significant economic data and central bank decisions, alongside an OPEC+ meeting that may influence energy markets.
Labor data indicates a mixed picture, with softer job openings but stronger ADP employment and GDP figures, while central banks remain cautious.
U.S. equities faced volatility as strong earnings from Big Tech were overshadowed by inflation concerns and tariff uncertainties.
Key market events include labor reports, global PMIs, and central bank meetings that could lead to notable shifts in equity and currency markets.

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This week brings a heavy slate of economic data and central bank decisions, alongside an OPEC+ meeting that could steer energy markets. Investors will navigate a mix of labor reports, inflation signals, and trade updates to gauge global economic momentum.

Labor Data and Central Bank Reactions

The week opened with softer U.S. JOLTS job openings, suggesting cracks in the labor market, while ADP employment and second-quarter GDP exceeded expectations, highlighting the economy’s underlying resilience. Central banks maintained a cautious stance, with the Federal Reserve, Bank of Canada, and Bank of Japan all leaving rates unchanged, effectively pushing any major decisions to September. The reduced probability of a Fed rate cut initially pushed the U.S. dollar higher, reflecting tighter policy expectations.

Wall Street Volatility and Earnings Drama

U.S. equities experienced a rollercoaster week as strong Big Tech earnings clashed with tariff uncertainty and firm inflation readings. Early in the week, optimism surged as Microsoft and Meta posted impressive results, driving the NASDAQ more than 300 points higher intraday. That rally proved short-lived as profit-taking and rate-sensitive selling dragged the index lower by the close, while the Dow, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 all retreated.

Friday’s core PCE inflation reading added to the turbulence. Prices rose 0.3% month-over-month in June, the largest gain since February, keeping the annual rate at 2.8% versus a 2.7% forecast. Tariff-driven cost pressures in furniture, household goods, and recreational products reinforced the Federal Reserve’s concerns about sticky inflation, leading to a late-week selloff in both stocks and the dollar.

Key Market Events for the Week

With central banks in focus, labor market data across multiple regions, and OPEC+ guiding energy sentiment, this week could see significant cross-asset moves. Equity and currency markets remain particularly sensitive to any surprise shifts in inflation expectations or global growth signals, while oil and commodities could react sharply to OPEC+ decisions and Chinese trade figures.

Sunday: Energy Markets in the Spotlight

OPEC+ Meeting: Oil traders will watch for any changes in production quotas or supply guidance.
Market Impact: A surprise production cut or extension could tighten global supply and support crude prices.

Monday: U.S. Labor and Manufacturing Pulse

US Employment Trends (June): Offers early signals on hiring momentum before Friday’s jobs reports.
US Durable Goods (June): A key gauge of business investment and manufacturing health, which can influence industrial stocks and bond yields.

Tuesday: Global PMI Wave and Trade Data

China Final Caixin Services & Composite PMI (July): Critical for measuring post-slowdown recovery momentum.
Eurozone, UK & US S&P Global Final PMIs (July): Services and composite readings will confirm whether growth is stabilizing or slipping.
Canada Trade Balance (June): Trade dynamics remain key for the CAD amid oil market swings.
US ISM Services PMI (July): A high-impact release for rate expectations and stock market sentiment.
New Zealand Q2 Jobs Report: Important for RBNZ policy outlook and NZD volatility

Wednesday: Central Bank and Eurozone Focus

RBI Rate Decision: India’s central bank will signal whether inflation risks justify a policy hold or shift.
German Industrial Orders (June): Key insight into Europe’s largest economy and export resilience.
EZ Construction PMIs (July) & Retail Sales (June): Gauges of consumer and building activity in a challenging macro backdrop.

Thursday: A Central Bank Triple-Header

Bank of England & Monetary Policy Report: BoE may hint at future easing if inflation continues to moderate.
New Zealand Q3 Inflation Forecasts: A forward-looking measure that can shift RBNZ policy expectations.
China Trade Balance (July): Will reveal how global demand and domestic recovery are shaping exports.

Friday: Jobs and Central Bank Insights

Canada July Jobs Report: A key labor release that can influence BoC policy outlook.
Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions (SOO): Provides insight into BoJ’s thinking amid a weak yen and global rate divergence.

Last week, markets were quite volatile, with gold retreating and then bouncing to finish the week unchanged. EUR/USD slipped toward 1.14 but also rebounded on Friday, while S&P and Nasdaq ended the week lower. The moves weren’t too big though, and we opened 35 trading signals in total, finishing the week with 23 winning signals and 12 losing ones.

Gold Rebounds Off the 100 Daily SMA

Gold prices remain trapped below their April peak as safe-haven demand meets fading momentum, with markets watching labor data and global tensions for the next trigger. Gold has been stabilizing under record levels since late April, caught between geopolitical uncertainty and shifting Federal Reserve expectations. After the Fed left interest rates unchanged at last week’s FOMC meeting, XAU/USD briefly fell to $3,268 before rebounding strongly, supported by the 100-day simple moving average.

Weak U.S. employment data, which some investors questioned for accuracy, fueled the rebound into the weekend, so this week’s Unemployment Claims take extra importance for Gold traders, as they will confirm or dismiss Friday’s NFP data. Despite this, buyers have been unable to retake the $3,450–$3,500 zone, leaving GOLD in a prolonged consolidation phase.

XAU/USD – Daily Chart

USD/JPY Breaks Above $150 Again

The dollar initially surged against the yen, breaking its 50-week moving average and climbing above ¥150, as investors leaned into the policy divergence between the Fed and the Bank of Japan. Reports suggested that Japanese capital was again flowing overseas in search of higher returns. However, Friday’s weak U.S. jobs report sparked a pullback, with USD/JPY sliding nearly four cents as traders reassessed the labor market outlook.

USD/JPY – Weekly Chart

Cryptocurrency Update

Bitcoin Pulls Back to $115K

Cryptocurrencies remained a bright spot in an otherwise unsettled market. Bitcoin briefly fell below $112,000 early in the week before rebounding strongly above $120,000, supported by its 50-day and 20-week moving averages.

BTC/USD – Weekly chart

Ethereum Inches Closer to $4,000

Ethereum continued to outshine Bitcoin, rallying 20% since April and breaking its 100-week moving average. The move has been fueled by optimism over the upcoming “Pectra” upgrade, which promises to enhance scalability and transaction efficiency, drawing renewed institutional inflows. Ethereum is now aiming for the $4,000 level, reinforcing its role as a favored high-conviction asset in times of macro uncertainty.

ETH/USD – Daily Chart

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Skerdian Meta

Lead Analyst

Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.