US Oil Climbs to $65.73 as Trump Ceasefire Deadline and WTI Reversal Loom
Oil markets are higher early Wednesday as traders wait for Friday’s deadline set by President Trump. WTI is up 0.9% to $65.73,
Quick overview
- Oil markets are experiencing a rise as traders anticipate President Trump's Friday deadline, with WTI up 0.9% and Brent at $68.25.
- Geopolitical tensions and supply signals, particularly Trump's sanctions threat on Russian oil buyers, are contributing to market volatility.
- The API reported a larger-than-expected 4.2 million barrel drawdown in US crude stocks, with key EIA figures expected later today.
- A bearish trade setup is suggested for WTI near the 50 EMA resistance, with specific entry and target levels outlined.
Oil markets are higher early Wednesday as traders wait for Friday’s deadline set by President Trump. WTI is up 0.9% to $65.73, Brent is at $68.25. The rally follows a 1.5% sell-off on Tuesday on OPEC+ supply concerns and soft US data.
Geopolitics and supply signals are behind the recovery. Trump’s threat of secondary sanctions on Russian oil buyers has the market on edge. ING say “We should get more clarity later this week” highlighting the wait and see mood.
On the supply side the API reported a bigger than expected 4.2 million barrel drawdown in US crude stocks. The official EIA figures later today will be key.
WTI Faces Resistance at Key EMA Zone
Technically WTI is fragile. The 4 hour chart shows a down trending channel with lower highs. Price recently tested the demand zone between $65.15 and $64.70 which has seen repeated buying interest.
The 50 period EMA (currently at $67.34) is key resistance. Bulls tried to push higher but failed to close above it, suggesting weakness in follow through. Momentum is weak:
- RSI: Bounced from oversold (now at 37.74) but still below the 50 line
- Candlesticks: No bullish engulfing or strong reversal; indecision near support
- Structure: Lower highs remain intact, bearish bias still valid
Unless price takes out the 50 EMA with conviction this bounce may fizzle out.
Trade Idea: Short WTI Near Resistance
For those watching this setup the trade is to fade any rallies near the 50 EMA resistance.
Trade Setup:
- Bias: Bearish below $67.34
- Entry Zone: $66.30 to $66.80
- Stop Loss: $67.60
- Target 1: $65.15
- Target 2: $63.99
Wait for confirmation—look for bearish reversal candles like a shooting star or bearish engulfing pattern to enter. Best setups come after a test and rejection of resistance, especially when volume fades.
Clean risk reward and fits the technical and macro. No trade is 100%—use stops, size and be flexible.
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