Will MSTR Stock Rebound This Week on Posible S&P 500 Entry?
A new wave of institutional demand is expected as a result of MicroStrategy's sophisticated Bitcoin strategy and record-breaking profits...
Quick overview
- MicroStrategy's impressive Q2 2025 earnings report, with a net income of $10.02 billion, has fueled speculation about its potential inclusion in the S&P 500.
- The company's stock has shown signs of stabilization despite recent declines, suggesting a possible bullish reversal.
- Institutional interest is growing, highlighted by CalSTRS' $133 million investment in MicroStrategy shares, reinforcing the company's credibility.
- MicroStrategy's strategy of accumulating Bitcoin and innovative funding vehicles positions it uniquely in the market, blending traditional equity with cryptocurrency.
A new wave of institutional demand is expected as a result of MicroStrategy’s sophisticated Bitcoin strategy and record-breaking profits report, which have raised rumors that the company may soon be included in the S&P 500.
S&P 500 Speculation Lifts Investor Sentiment
Although MicroStrategy’s stock has faced pressure from Bitcoin’s pullbacks and regulatory changes around equity issuance, optimism is building that the company’s trajectory is turning upward. A fresh spark came from cryptocurrency analyst and influencer Lark Davis, who suggested that MicroStrategy—led by Bitcoin evangelist Michael Saylor—could be on the verge of inclusion in the prestigious S&P 500 index.
Such a move would be highly significant: passive funds that track the index would be forced to buy MSTR shares immediately upon inclusion, creating powerful buying pressure. Historically, companies added to major benchmarks experience a jump in both trading volume and share price.
If realized, this milestone would not only provide MicroStrategy with greater visibility among traditional investors but also highlight how deeply intertwined cryptocurrency and equity markets have become. Reports suggest that S&P 500 inclusion could be decided as early as Friday, magnifying anticipation ahead of the next U.S. market session.
Technical Signs of a Bullish Reversal
After reaching a high of nearly $540 last November, MicroStrategy’s stock lost momentum, sliding steadily through mid-2024. Last week, it fell around 3% to $334, marking its lowest level since April. The decline was closely tied to a correction in Bitcoin prices and management’s controversial decision to loosen restrictions on new equity issuance in order to keep accumulating Bitcoin.
MSTR Chart Weekly – The 20 SMA Holding As Support
Despite these headwinds, the stock has shown signs of stabilizing. It recently bounced off its 50-week simple moving average, with oversold conditions flagged by stochastic indicators. This setup suggests a possible reversal in progress, potentially marking the continuation of the larger uptrend. For technical traders, the combination of support holding and renewed buying pressure presents a compelling bullish signal.
Record Earnings Shock the Market
The turning point for MicroStrategy came with its astonishing Q2 2025 earnings report. Net income soared to $10.02 billion, translating into earnings per share of $32.60—an eye-popping 46,000% upside surprise compared with analyst expectations. GAAP operating income surged to $14 billion, up more than 7,100% year over year, while revenue of $114.5 million came in above forecasts.
The main driver behind this blowout performance was the company’s vast Bitcoin holdings, which reached new all-time highs during the quarter. Executive Chairman Michael Saylor seized the moment to unveil a novel funding vehicle, the Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock (STRC), which he described as the company’s “iPhone moment.”
Designed to be backed by Bitcoin reserves, STRC offers income-focused investors high-yield dividends. Investor appetite was evident, with $2.5 billion raised out of a $4.2 billion program almost immediately. This pivot underscores how far MicroStrategy has moved from its roots in enterprise software toward becoming a Bitcoin-centric financial powerhouse.
Institutional Support Strengthens Case
MicroStrategy’s credibility in institutional circles has been bolstered by high-profile investments. The California State Teachers’ Retirement System (CalSTRS), the third-largest U.S. pension fund, recently disclosed a $133 million stake in MSTR shares—an endorsement that signals growing mainstream acceptance of Saylor’s strategy.
At the same time, the company has continued to aggressively expand its Bitcoin reserves. It purchased $51 million worth of Bitcoin in August, followed by another 3,081 BTC at the end of the month, totaling $357 million. MicroStrategy now holds more than 632,457 BTC, valued at over $46.5 billion, cementing its role as the largest corporate Bitcoin holder in the world. With relaxed funding rules that allow the firm to issue stock even when its market-value-to-Bitcoin ratio dips, the company is clearly positioning itself to keep buying regardless of near-term volatility.
The Road Ahead
MicroStrategy’s blend of massive Bitcoin exposure, financial innovation, and surging institutional interest has positioned it as one of the most unique companies on Wall Street. While the risks remain high—given its dependence on Bitcoin’s volatile price swings—the potential S&P 500 inclusion could act as a catalyst for a new leg higher in MSTR’s stock. For investors, MicroStrategy represents both a high-beta play on Bitcoin and a test case of how traditional equity markets are absorbing digital asset exposure.
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