Bitcoin Holds Above $113K, $22.6B Options Expiry Creates Critical Market Juncture
Bitcoin (BTC) is still trading above the $113,000 barrier, which is crucial for the mind, even though it just fell from $117,000 highs.
Quick overview
- Bitcoin is currently trading above $113,000, despite a recent drop from $117,000, with traders closely monitoring a $22.6 billion options expiration.
- The options market shows a bullish positioning with $12.6 billion in call options compared to $10 billion in puts, although there is caution among institutional investors.
- Technical analysis indicates that Bitcoin's critical support level is at $111,000, with potential bearish scenarios if it falls below this mark.
- Long-term predictions for Bitcoin remain optimistic, with some analysts suggesting it could reach $3.4 million by 2028, contingent on changes in Federal Reserve policy.
Bitcoin BTC/USD is still trading above the $113,000 barrier, which is crucial for the mind, even though it just fell from $117,000 highs. The cryptocurrency has been rather stable over the last 24 hours, so traders are keeping a careful eye on a huge $22.6 billion monthly options expiration set for Friday that might set the direction for BTC in the near future.
BTC Options Data Reveals Bullish Positioning Despite Elevated Caution
The end of the September options creates a complicated picture for Bitcoin’s future. With $17.4 billion in open interest, Deribit is the leader in the derivatives market. OKX and CME each add $1.9 billion. Call options are still much better than put options, with $12.6 billion in call holdings compared to about $10 billion in put contracts. This is a 20% difference that usually favors positive outcomes.
But the way the strikes are spread out indicates a more complicated narrative. There is a lot of call open interest at the high level of $120,000 and above, which is $6.6 billion. At the current price levels, there is only $3.3 billion in realistic play. At the same time, 81% of put options are at $110,000 or less, and only $1.4 billion are still active above that level.
The options delta skew is currently at 13%, which means there is moderate concern because put options are trading at a higher price than corresponding calls. This number shows that institutional investors and market makers are still wary of negative risks at these levels, even though the overall trend is up.
BTC/USD Technical Analysis Points to Critical $112K Support Level
Recent technical research shows that Bitcoin is stuck in complicated subwave patterns that make it hard to predict short-term price changes. TARA, a crypto expert, said that even though Bitcoin just hit resistance at $113,500, the rejection shows that bullish momentum is weak right now. The $111,000 level is quite important since it lines up with important Fibonacci retracement levels, especially the .618 support zone.
A clear break below $111,000 might lead to a move toward the next key Fibonacci level near $99,000. This could shake off weak hands before a more secure base is built. On the other hand, holding support above this level keeps bullish scenarios alive. The next big obstacle is resistance at $113,000-$113,300.
Macro Factors and Fed Policy Could Tip the Scales
The fact that Thursday’s important macroeconomic reports, like US GDP figures and weekly jobless claims, come out at the same time as Friday’s options expiration makes things even more complicated. When the economy gets weaker, the Federal Reserve usually cuts interest rates more, which is good for risk-on assets like Bitcoin. But worries about the bad job market that won’t go away keep people from taking risks, which could hurt the pricing of cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin Price Prediction and Market Outlook
Based on current Deribit positioning, three probable scenarios emerge:
- $107,000-$110,000 range: Puts would dominate with a $1 billion net advantage over calls
- $110,100-$112,000 range: Balanced outcome with $1.4 billion on each side
- $112,100-$115,000 range: Calls gain a $660 million advantage over puts
Bitcoin’s Long-Term Bullish Thesis Remains Intact
Some analysts still have quite positive long-term expectations, even though there is a lot of uncertainty in the short term. Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of BitMEX, recently talked about a situation in which Bitcoin may reach $3.4 million by 2028. This would be dependent on changes in Federal Reserve policy and a huge credit expansion of $15.3 trillion.
Hayes’ thesis is based on the idea that the current government might change how the Federal Reserve works, together with the idea that stablecoin acceptance could lead to a $34 trillion addressable market for offshore dollar deposits. These predictions are very speculative, but they show how many people think Bitcoin might change the way the global financial system works.
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