WTI Crude Falls to $65 With Kurdish Supply Back—What’s Next?
WTI crude fell 1% to $65 on Monday as Iraq’s Kurdistan region started exports for the first time in 2.5 years. The deal between Baghdad...
Quick overview
- WTI crude oil prices fell 1% to $65 as Iraq's Kurdistan region resumed exports after 2.5 years.
- The new export deal is expected to increase oil flow to Turkey's Ceyhan port, potentially reaching 230,000 bpd.
- OPEC+ is considering a production hike that could add at least 137,000 bpd, raising concerns about oversupply.
- Technical indicators suggest a bullish trend for WTI, with key resistance and support levels identified for traders.
WTI crude fell 1% to $65 on Monday as Iraq’s Kurdistan region started exports for the first time in 2.5 years. The deal between Baghdad, the Kurdish Regional Government and international oil companies will see 180,000-190,000 bpd flow to Turkey’s Ceyhan port, with volumes expected to increase to 230,000 bpd.
Exports come as the US is pressing to get Kurdish oil back into the market and just as OPEC+ is about to decide on another production hike. Reports suggest the group may add at least 137,000 bpd this week, which would be a worry for the market as supply could outstrip demand by year-end.
Meanwhile, risks to Russian output remain as Ukraine targets Moscow’s energy infrastructure. This tug-of-war between new supply and ongoing disruption is keeping oil traders on edge.
USOIL Technical Picture Remains Bullish
On the charts, WTI crude is still inside a rising channel, with a series of higher highs and higher lows since bouncing off $62.70. The latest push stalled at $66.59, where a shooting star formed resistance. Prices have since pulled back to the mid-channel zone and are holding above $65.00.
Momentum is intact, with the 50-SMA above the 100-SMA and the RSI at 56. A string of green candles last week was like “three white soldiers” but the latest spinning top shows hesitation at resistance.
Key levels to watch:
- Above $66.60 → up to $67.20-$68.00
- Below $64.40 → down to $63.30-$62.70
Crude Oil (USOIL) Trade Setup for Traders
For traders, it’s a crossroads. Conservative buyers may enter near $65.00-$64.50 with stops below $63.90 and targets at $66.60 and $67.20. Aggressive players may wait for a confirmed break above $66.60 and aim for $68.00.
The key is candlestick confirmation: a bullish break would validate the channel, a shooting star or bearish engulfing at resistance would be a pullback.
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