Daily Crypto Signals: Bitcoin Eyes $140K Target, Ethereum Tests Critical $4,800 Resistance
Bitcoin faces a pivotal moment with simulations showing 50% odds of reaching $140,000 this month, while institutional inflows hit $3.5B
Quick overview
- Bitcoin faces a critical moment with a 50% chance of reaching $140,000 this month, supported by significant institutional inflows and declining exchange reserves.
- Ethereum struggles to break the $4,800 resistance level, with mixed signals from the derivatives market and a potential bullish trend if it holds above $4,400.
- Regulatory developments are shaping the crypto landscape, with Dubai enforcing measures against non-compliant businesses while traditional finance invests heavily in crypto infrastructure.
- Geopolitical tensions are impacting the market, as seen with the EU's potential penalties against the A7A5 stablecoin, which paradoxically increased its market cap significantly.
Bitcoin BTC/USD faces a pivotal moment with simulations showing 50% odds of reaching $140,000 this month, while institutional inflows hit $3.5 billion weekly and exchange reserves drop to five-year lows. Meanwhile, Ethereum ETH/USD struggles to break through the $4,800 barrier amid mixed signals from derivatives markets, though declining exchange reserves suggest potential upside momentum.
Crypto Market Developments
This week, there were big changes in the cryptocurrency market when it comes to rules and institutions. This is because digital assets are becoming more common in conventional banking. The Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority in Dubai launched a wave of enforcement measures against 19 businesses for unlawful activities and marketing violations. At the same time, it gave BitGo’s Middle East division a broker-dealer license. This two-pronged strategy shows how hard authorities are working to set clear rules and punish operators who don’t follow them.
Intercontinental Exchange, the parent firm of the New York Stock Exchange, made a historic investment of $2 billion in the prediction market platform Polymarket, which is worth $9 billion. This investment connects traditional and crypto finance. The investment is one of the biggest traditional finance investments in crypto infrastructure, and it shows that institutions are becoming more confident in blockchain-based prediction markets.
Geopolitical issues kept affecting the crypto markets. For example, the European Union is said to be thinking about penalties against A7A5, the world’s largest non-dollar stablecoin backed by the Russian currency. After the EU imposed penalties in September, A7A5’s market cap jumped 250% in one day, going from $140 million to nearly $491 million. This shows that regulatory pressure can sometimes lead to more use in some areas.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: $140K-$150K Next Target?
Bitcoin (BTC): After reaching a new all-time high of $126,219 on Monday, Bitcoin fell 4.2% on Tuesday and is now trading around $122,000. Even if there was a retracement after a 12.5% weekly gain, several signs point to ongoing bullish trend. Economist Timothy Peterson’s models utilizing ten years of historical data show that there is a 50% chance that Bitcoin would end October above $140,000, which would be a 14.7% increase from where it is now. The prediction is in line with how Bitcoin has done in October in the past. Since 2013, it has averaged 20.75% increases, making it the second-best month.
It looks like the surge is based on real institutional demand instead of speculative leverage. Weekly inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded products hit $3.55 billion, bringing the total assets under management to $195.2 billion. The number of Bitcoin deposits on exchanges fell to its lowest level in more than five years, down to 2.38 million BTC from 2.99 million BTC just one month before. This shows that people are still accumulating BTC. Bitcoin futures have a solid open interest of $72 billion, which is an 8% annualized premium over spot prices. This puts them securely in the neutral area and lowers the possibility of cascading liquidations. Adoption by businesses is still speeding up. For example, Brazilian company OranjeBTC started trading on the stock market after getting 3,675 BTC worth more than $445 million.
Can Ethereum Cross Resistance at $4,800?
Ethereum had a big test on Monday when it couldn’t break through resistance at $4,800 amid the Bitcoin rise. This caused a 3% drop below $4,500. Technical analysis showed a bearish divergence on the four-hour chart, which usually means that buyers are getting weaker and that short-term reversals are likely to happen. The pullback happened even though the market was sending mixed signals. The spot cumulative volume delta dropped sharply to show net selling pressure, while the futures open interest and futures CVD stayed high, which means that leveraged traders are still betting on volatility even though spot buyers are taking profits.
The main support zone in the near term is around $4,400, where stop orders tend to group together. This could be a good place to enter the market because of the extra liquidity. If the price bounces back strongly from this level, it would invalidate the bearish setup and show that the bullish trend is back on track. If $4,400 isn’t defended, though, the correction could go on to $4,250-$4,100, where overlapping order blocks show that there is a lot of interest. Even if things are terrible right now, structural indications show that the fundamentals are getting better.
Exchange reserves are down to about 16.1 million ETH, which is more than 25% less than they were in 2022. At the same time, net exchange flows are still negative as ETH transfers into self-custody and staking. XWIN Research said that Bitcoin’s 130% rise since 2022, along with the growing M2 money supply, shows a “liquidity lag” that may be getting smaller. Ethereum’s 15% rise, on the other hand, shows a “liquidity lag” that may be getting smaller. Traders in cryptocurrencies noticed that the recent surge was the “fourth tap” of the $4,700-$4,800 zone. If it holds, it might mean that strong bullish momentum is on the way.
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