TMC Stock Tumbles 10% after Meteoric Rally as U.S.–China Rare Earth Tensions Subside
The Metals Company’s explosive rise this October has turned it into one of the most talked-about names in the critical minerals space...
Quick overview
- The Metals Company (TMC) has seen a dramatic rise in its stock price, surging over 900% year-over-year due to geopolitical tensions and increasing demand for battery metals.
- China's new export restrictions on rare earths have heightened concerns about supply shortages, prompting investors to seek domestic producers like TMC.
- Supportive U.S. policies and strategic partnerships, such as Korea Zinc's investment, have bolstered investor confidence in TMC's future prospects.
- Despite its success, TMC faces challenges including financial losses and environmental scrutiny related to deep-sea mining operations.
The Metals Company’s explosive rise this October has turned it into one of the most talked-about names in the critical minerals space, fueled by geopolitical tension, policy tailwinds, and a global scramble for battery metals.
A Rare Earth Revival
The Metals Company (NASDAQ: TMC) continued its powerful rally into October, soaring to $11.31 on Monday before easing later in the week. The surge was underpinned by a mix of China–U.S. tariff tensions, new legislative support, foreign investment inflows, and rapidly rising demand for battery metals.
This year’s rally has seen TMC’s share price surge by more than 900% year-over-year, reaching its highest levels in four years — a comeback few could have predicted. The stock has become a clear beneficiary of shifting trade and policy dynamics that are reshaping the global rare earth landscape.
Rising Tensions, Rising Prices
The rally gathered momentum after China imposed new export restrictions on rare earths, citing national security concerns. The move reignited fears of a potential supply crunch, spotlighting the West’s dependence on Chinese dominance — which controls 70% of global mining and 90% of processing capacity.
The situation escalated when President Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese imports starting November 1, further amplifying volatility. With both nations tightening trade controls, investors flocked to domestic producers seen as key to securing the U.S. supply chain.
TMC Chart Weekly – The 20 SMA Turned Into Support
At the same time, JPMorgan’s $1.5 trillion strategic investment plan — aimed at bolstering U.S. infrastructure and critical mineral projects — further boosted investor confidence across the sector.
Policy Winds Behind the Rally
TMC’s ascent has been supported by a changing U.S. policy backdrop. The administration’s focus on energy security and mineral independence has set off a wave of optimism in companies engaged in resource extraction, from MP Materials to Lithium Americas.
A defining moment came when President Trump signed an executive order in mid-2025 to accelerate U.S.-based deep-sea mining approvals. This allowed TMC to progress independently of the International Seabed Authority’s long-delayed global framework, fast-tracking its regulatory path.
Shortly after, the NOAA confirmed TMC’s environmental and operational compliance, solidifying its standing as a credible player and spurring a spike in trading volumes.
Strategic Partnerships Strengthen Confidence
Investor interest intensified after Korea Zinc acquired a 5% equity stake in TMC earlier this year, investing $85.2 million and securing warrants to purchase additional shares at $7 within three years. Analysts viewed this move as both a supply chain alliance and a validation of TMC’s long-term strategy.
Following the deal, Wedbush Securities upgraded TMC to “Outperform” and lifted its price target from $6 to $11, citing a favorable policy environment and strengthened commercialization prospects.
Such partnerships underscore growing institutional and global faith in TMC’s role as a leader in the cobalt, nickel, and manganese markets — vital components in electric vehicles and energy storage systems.
Challenges Beneath the Surface
Despite its stellar run, TMC’s journey is not without turbulence. The company’s Q2 2025 loss of –$0.20 per share missed expectations by a wide margin, raising questions about cash burn and the cost of scaling operations.
Environmental scrutiny also looms large. Marine biologists and NGOs warn that deep-sea mining could have irreversible ecological impacts, prompting calls for tighter regulations and potential project delays. Balancing financial momentum with environmental stewardship remains one of TMC’s toughest tests.
Speculation and Outlook
Recent speculation hints at potential U.S. government equity participation in TMC — a development that, if confirmed, would mark a major milestone for domestic resource security policy. While no formal announcement has been made, the chatter underscores the strategic importance now attached to seabed minerals.
For now, investors remain split between policy-driven optimism and operational caution. As the U.S.–China narrative evolves, TMC’s trajectory will depend on its ability to sustain growth while managing financial strain and regulatory headwinds.
Closing Line: Whether seen as a bold bet on the future of energy or a high-stakes environmental gamble, The Metals Company stands at the center of a defining moment in the race for critical resources — and the market is watching closely.
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