Bitcoin Flirting with $111,500 Resistance: Short Squeeze Potential Ahead?
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently worth more than $108,000, which is down about 1.7% in the last 24 hours. This is because traders are trying to
Quick overview
- Bitcoin is currently valued at over $108,000, down 1.7% in the last 24 hours as traders assess mixed market signals.
- Technical analysis indicates a bullish trend line with key support at $108,800, while resistance levels are identified at $110,500 and above.
- Analysts suggest Bitcoin may be entering a 'disbelief phase,' which could lead to a short squeeze and potential price surges if resistance levels are broken.
- Recent whale activity and geopolitical developments have added complexity to the market, with significant withdrawals indicating long-term holder accumulation.
Bitcoin BTC/USD is currently worth more than $108,000, which is down about 1.7% in the last 24 hours. This is because traders are trying to figure out what to do with mixed signals about technical weakness and possible bullish triggers.
BTC/USD Technical Recovery: Early Promise Despite Bearish Indicators
Bitcoin’s price movements show that the cryptocurrency is trying to find equilibrium after pushing higher levels close to $111,800. The flagship digital asset has been able to stay above the important $108,000 level and the 100-hour Simple Moving Average, which shows that it is still strong even though it has dropped recently.
Technical analysis shows a bullish trend line on the hourly chart with support at $108,800, which has kept the price from going down any further. BTC had a hard time staying above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of its latest drop from the swing high of $115,975 to the low of $103,582, which shows that resistance is still strong.
The first level of resistance is at $110,500, and the next two are at $111,200 and $111,500. If the market closes over $111,500, it might start a rebound toward $112,500 and maybe even $113,200, with the next big goal being $115,000. On the other hand, if BTC doesn’t get back to $110,000, it could go back down to support levels of $108,000, $107,550, and maybe even $106,500.
The technical indicators paint a gloomy picture: the hourly MACD is gaining speed in bearish territory, and the RSI has slipped below the important 50 level, which means that buying pressure is fading in the short term.
‘Disbelief Phase’ Could Fuel Explosive Rally Through Short Squeeze
Darkfost, an on-chain analyst, says that Bitcoin may be approaching the “disbelief phase” of its market cycle, which is a time where prices tend to go up a lot. This stage happens when a new rise starts, but investors are still unsure after recent corrections.
The proof is in how people feel about the derivatives market. Bitcoin financing rates stayed negative at -0.004% for six out of seven days last week. This shows that traders are still bearish after the October 10 meltdown that caused $19 billion in liquidations and temporarily drove BTC to $102,000.
But this ongoing doubt could be what starts the next surge. As more and more short positions build up, they create fuel for a potential short squeeze. This is when prices rise quickly, forcing short sellers to buy back Bitcoin, which speeds up the upward momentum. Analysts say that there are big liquidity zones around $113,000 and $126,000 where a lot of short order liquidations happen.
This thesis is backed up by historical patterns. Bitcoin dropped to $54,000 in September 2024, but then it rose to new all-time highs over $100,000. In the same way, the asset rose from $85,000 to $111,000 in April 2025, and then to $123,000.
BTC Whale Activity and Geopolitical Catalysts Add Complexity
Whale activity and changes in the geopolitical landscape have made the market even more difficult. An insider whale just placed $255 million in long positions on Bitcoin and Ethereum while also opening a $76 million short position on Bitcoin with 10x leverage. This suggests that they expect the market to stay volatile rather than making a simple wager on the direction.
After US President Donald Trump said he would meet with China’s leader at the APEC summit on October 31, things started to look up. After threatening to raise tariffs on China, Trump’s softer tone toward the country’s economy caused Bitcoin to rise by around 4% and adding about $100 billion to the total crypto market.
Exchange data suggests that a lot of money has left the market, with almost 21,000 BTC taken out of major platforms in the past week. Coinbase Pro and Binance had the most withdrawals, with 15,000 BTC and 12,000 BTC, respectively. This could mean that long-term holders are building up their holdings.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: Cautious Optimism With Key Levels in Focus
Bitcoin is at a crucial point right now, according to both technical and fundamental criteria. If BTC can break over $111,500, there is a chance for a rise toward $113,000-$115,000 in the near term. This is because of low financing rates, short positions building up, and rising geopolitical sentiment.
But traders should still be careful. Bearish technical indications and current Bitcoin activity falling below its 365-day average are two signs that prudence is needed. To keep the bullish outlook, the critical support level of $108,000 needs to hold. If it breaks below, prices might fall to $105,500, which could delay recovery.
The most likely thing to happen is that prices will stay in the $108,000–$111,500 range for a while before making a big jump. If the assumption about the disbelieving phase is right and international tensions lessen, a short squeeze might push Bitcoin up to $126,000. On the other hand, if the current resistance isn’t broken, there may be a retest of lower support levels before any long-term rebound happens.
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