Bitcoin Holds Above $110,000 as Bulls Face Critical Test Amid Mixed Macro Signals
Bitcoin (BTC) remains resilient despite warnings of potential dip below $100K, while technical indicators suggest recovery momentum building
Quick overview
- Bitcoin remains strong above $110,000, having increased nearly 2% in the last 24 hours despite potential short-term corrections.
- Standard Chartered warns of a possible drop below $100,000, but views any decline as a potential buying opportunity with long-term price targets of $200,000 by year-end.
- On-chain analytics indicate critical support levels around $108,500, with risks of further declines if this level is breached.
- The macroeconomic environment remains favorable for Bitcoin, with ongoing institutional interest and expectations of easing monetary policy.
Bitcoin BTC/USD is still strong over the $110,000 mark. In the last 24 hours, it has gone up almost 2% as the leading cryptocurrency deals with a complicated mix of positive macro factors and short-term correction dangers. The recent price movement comes at a time when big financial institutions are making different predictions and on-chain indicators are sending out caution signs.
Standard Chartered Flags Near-Term Correction Below $100K
Geoff Kendrick, the head of digital asset analysis at Standard Chartered, has cautioned that Bitcoin (BTC) could potentially drop below the psychologically important $100,000 mark in the near future, even if it is currently holding up well. The prognosis is based on rising global concerns, especially rising trade tensions between the US and China and possible interruptions to liquidity.
Kendrick, on the other hand, sees any drop as transient and calls it a possible “buying opportunity,” saying that this may be “the last time Bitcoin is EVER below” the six-figure barrier. The analyst keeps their lofty price forecasts of $200,000 by the end of the year and $500,000 by 2028 to back up this positive long-term perspective. Kendrick says that capital migrating from gold to Bitcoin and technical support at the 50-week moving average are two things that should keep prices from going down too far.
Critical On-Chain Levels Put $97,500 Support in Focus
Glassnode, an on-chain analytics company, has found important price levels that could affect Bitcoin’s short-term direction. At the moment, the cryptocurrency is challenging the 0.85 quantile level, which is about $108,600, where 15% of the BTC supply is below water. In the past, not being able to stay above this level has meant that the market is weak and has led to bigger corrections.
Glassnode says that if Bitcoin falls below the $108,500 support zone, it might drop to the 0.75 quantile at $97,500, which would be similar to what happened in mid-2024 when prices were consolidating. Also, BTC is currently below the $113,100 cost basis for short-term holders (those who bought it in the last 155 days), who are known for selling in a panic when the market is unstable. Glassnode says that “this dynamic often comes before the start of a mid-term bearish phase, as weaker hands start to give up.”
BTC/USD Technical Analysis Points to Recovery Potential
Even though there are problems with the blockchain, Bitcoin’s price is starting to stabilize and may even go up. After testing support at $106,720, BTC has started to rise again, this time above $108,800, breaking above a short-term falling channel. The cryptocurrency is now trading above its 100-hour simple moving average. The hourly MACD is gaining strength in positive zone, while the RSI is rising above the neutral 50 mark.
The immediate resistance level is $111,200, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the current drop from $114,000 to $106,717. If Bitcoin breaks over this level, it might go up to $112,500 and maybe even $114,000. But if the price doesn’t get above $111,200, it could start selling again, with support levels at $109,500, $108,800, and $108,500.
Macro Backdrop Remains Constructive Despite Volatility
Even while short-term dangers get a lot of attention, the overall macro climate is still good for Bitcoin’s long-term value. As central banks keep their policies loose, the growth of the global M2 money supply, which is a big part of BTC’s historical price changes, stays strong. This increase in liquidity strengthens Bitcoin’s growing position as a way to diversify a portfolio and protect against inflation, in addition to its speculative appeal.
Institutional interest and on-chain activity are still high, which means that the current dip may be a healthy mid-cycle consolidation instead of a structural reversal. People in the market are also keeping an eye on the delayed U.S. inflation report that will come out on Friday. The September CPI is predicted to be 3.1%, which would be the highest reading of 2025. High inflation usually puts pressure on risky assets, but the Federal Reserve is focused on the dismal labor market, so rate reduction are still very likely. CME futures markets are pricing in a 98.3% chance of easing at the next meeting.
Bitcoin Price Outlook: Navigating the $100K-$115K Range
Bitcoin investors are at a very important point right now that the price is above $110,000. There is a complicated risk-reward situation because there are bearish on-chain indications, cautious institutional projections, and macro conditions that are good for the market. Traders should keep a careful eye on the $108,500 support level in the near future. If it breaks down, losses might speed up toward $100,000 or perhaps $97,500.
On the other hand, if trade stays above $111,200 for a long period, negative possibilities will be ruled out and new all-time highs above $114,000 will be possible. Institutional strategists are still aiming for big long-term goals even though they are being cautious in the short term. This means that the current price range could be what Standard Chartered calls a “final buying opportunity” before Bitcoin’s next big jump up. As always, people who work in the market should keep an eye out for changes in trade policy, decisions made by the Federal Reserve, and liquidity shocks that could cause big swings in either direction.
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