Bitcoin Price Forecast: $107K Support Holds as Fed Shift Sparks Liquidity Hopes
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is trading at around $110,400, regaining momentum after bouncing off strong support around $107,300.
Quick overview
- Bitcoin is currently trading around $110,400 after bouncing off strong support at $107,300, following a pivotal announcement from the Federal Reserve regarding its quantitative tightening program.
- Analysts note that while liquidity injections historically boost markets, the current environment is different due to Bitcoin's increased role in global liquidity flows and a more mature market structure.
- Technical analysis indicates a potential breakout for Bitcoin, with critical resistance levels at the 50-EMA and 200-EMA, and traders are advised to consider long positions above $111,500.
- As the Fed's tightening cycle winds down, Bitcoin may face short-term turbulence but could emerge as a leading hedge against monetary uncertainty if macro conditions improve.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is trading at around $110,400, regaining momentum after bouncing off strong support around $107,300. The recovery follows a pivotal announcement from the Federal Reserve, which indicated that its quantitative tightening (QT) program is nearing its conclusion. The shift signals an upcoming liquidity cycle that could reshape market dynamics for risk assets — with Bitcoin once again at the center.
Historically, when the Fed pivots away from balance-sheet reductions, liquidity tends to re-enter global markets, often lifting both equities and crypto assets. This time, however, the setup looks more mature. According to Delta Exchange analyst Riya Sehgal, traders are cautious but alert: “Despite a 25-basis-point rate cut, ETF data shows capital rotation — with $197.5 million outflows from Bitcoin funds and $66.2 million from Ethereum.”
Comparing 2025 to the 2019 Cycle
Some analysts draw parallels to 2019’s post-Fed pivot, when liquidity injections failed to sustain a lasting rally. But many argue that 2025 is structurally different. “Unlike 2019, Bitcoin is now a key player in global liquidity flows,” said Ryan Lee, Chief Analyst at Bitget.
Key distinctions include:
- Interest Rates: Currently around 4%, leaving far more room for rate cuts than in 2019 (2.5%).
- Institutional Presence: ETFs, futures, and custody services have deepened market maturity.
- Macro Environment: Broader adoption amid fiscal uncertainty and geopolitical tension.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: Breakout Ahead
On the technical front, BTC’s 4-hour chart shows a symmetrical triangle pattern, suggesting that volatility is brewing. A bullish engulfing candle at $107,300 marked a rebound, supported by a rising trendline dating back to mid-September.
The 50-EMA ($111,240) and 200-EMA ($112,685) are now critical resistance levels. A breakout above these could trigger a bullish crossover — often a precursor to a sharp move higher. The RSI (47.4) has turned upward from oversold levels, hinting at early accumulation.
Trade Setup: Traders may consider long positions above $111,500, targeting $114,300 and $116,400, with stops near $107,200. A break below the trendline could open the door to $106,200 and $103,400.
The Road Ahead: November’s Defining Move
With the Fed’s tightening cycle winding down and liquidity expected to return, Bitcoin may be approaching a defining moment. Analysts warn of short-term turbulence but see broader opportunity ahead. If macro conditions ease further, Bitcoin could mirror gold’s historical response to rate cuts — emerging as a leading hedge against monetary uncertainty.
As volatility compresses, the next breakout — up or down — could set Bitcoin’s direction for the rest of 2025. For now, all eyes are on the $111K–$113K zone, where market sentiment will likely decide the next phase of the cycle.
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