Gold Price Forecast: Bulls Break $4,045 Resistance, Eye $4,145 Ahead of US CPI

Gold (XAU/USD) surged above the critical $4,045 resistance mark during the Asian session on Monday. It's signaling renewed bullish...

Written by: Arslan Butt • Monday, November 10, 2025 • 1 min read

• Last updated: Monday, November 10, 2025

Quick overview

Gold (XAU/USD) has broken above the $4,045 resistance level, indicating bullish momentum ahead of US inflation data.
The metal is benefiting from expectations of a December Fed rate cut and increased safe-haven demand due to the prolonged US government shutdown.
Traders are focused on upcoming economic reports, with any signs of softening inflation potentially boosting gold prices further.
Technical indicators suggest a bullish outlook for gold, with key support at $3,965 and potential targets of $4,142 to $4,227.

Gold (XAU/USD) surged above the critical $4,045 resistance mark during the Asian session on Monday. It’s signaling renewed bullish momentum ahead of this week’s high-impact US inflation figures. This breakout is confirming an upside move from the ascending triangle pattern that’s been building since early October. Prices are now testing the $4,054 zone, with traders eyeing further upside toward $4,142 and $4,227 if bullish momentum holds.

The yellow metal continues to benefit from expectations of a December Fed rate cut, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing a 67% probability. The prolonged US government shutdown, now over five weeks old, and legal uncertainty around tariffs have amplified safe-haven demand, keeping gold resilient above the $4,000 psychological level.

XAU/USD

Inflation and Retail Data in Focus

Traders are bracing for a busy week of US economic data, which could dictate gold’s next direction:

Nov 13: Core CPI m/m (0.3% forecast vs 0.2% prior)
Nov 14: Core PPI m/m and Retail Sales m/m reports
Nov 12: FOMC Member Waller Speech

Any softening in inflation or retail spending could reinforce expectations of a policy pivot, pressuring the dollar and fueling another leg higher in gold.

Gold (XAU/USD) Technical Outlook: Trendline Support Intact

Gold’s 4-hour chart shows price action supported by the ascending trendline near $3,965. The 20-EMA has turned upward, while the RSI (64) signals strengthening bullish momentum without yet reaching overbought territory.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview — GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

A sustained close above $4,045 would confirm a breakout, paving the way toward $4,142–$4,227. On the downside, failure to hold above $3,965 could trigger a pullback toward $3,883 — a zone likely to attract renewed buying interest.

Gold (XAU/USD) Outlook

Gold’s technical structure now favors the bulls. With inflation and retail sales data due this week, any dovish signal from the Fed narrative could drive XAU/USD’s next leg higher, keeping the $4,145–$4,225 range firmly in sight.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.