Gold Slips Below $4,050 as Triangle Squeeze Signals Breakout Toward $4,170
Gold slipped below $4,050 in early European trading as renewed dollar strength kept buyers on the defensive. The greenback held near...
Quick overview
- Gold prices fell below $4,050 due to a stronger dollar and mixed signals from Federal Reserve officials.
- Geopolitical tensions provide limited support for gold as market risk appetite improves, reducing safe-haven demand.
- Traders are awaiting key US economic data releases that could influence the dollar and gold prices this week.
- Gold is currently trading within a symmetrical triangle pattern, indicating indecision in the market.
Gold slipped below $4,050 in early European trading as renewed dollar strength kept buyers on the defensive. The greenback held near its strongest level since late May after a fresh round of mixed comments from Federal Reserve officials.
New York Fed President John Williams noted that policy is now “modestly restrictive,” hinting at room for a rate cut. But Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan pushed back, arguing there’s no need to ease yet. This split kept the dollar firm and made it harder for gold to recover intraday losses.
Improved risk appetite across Asian equities added to the pressure. Markets responded positively to expectations of a December rate cut, reducing safe-haven demand and keeping gold capped through the morning session.
Geopolitics Offer Support, but Limited
Geopolitical risks remain elevated, though they’re offering only partial support. Ukraine’s drone strike near Moscow and Russia’s advances in the east keep tensions high, while President Trump’s November 27 deadline for Kyiv to respond to a 28-point peace plan adds another layer of uncertainty.
In the Middle East, renewed friction is encouraging some caution, but with equities stabilizing and the dollar firm, gold’s flight-to-safety appeal is muted for now.
Key US Data Ahead
Traders now shift focus to US data releases: PPI, Retail Sales, and Consumer Confidence on Tuesday, followed by Q3 GDP and the PCE Price Index on Wednesday. These numbers will likely set the tone for the dollar—and by extension, gold—through the week.
Gold (XAU/USD) Technical Setup: Symmetrical Triangle Tightens
Gold continues to trade inside a two-week symmetrical triangle, with lower highs from $4,170 and higher lows from $3,990 and $4,020. Price is hovering around the 20-EMA, while repeated doji and spinning tops highlight indecision.
Downside wicks near $4,023 show buyers defending trendline support. Supply remains heavy near $4,100–$4,132, where the descending trendline repeatedly rejects rallies. The RSI at 46 stays neutral, showing no divergence—momentum is waiting for a catalyst.
Gold (XAU/USD) Trade Setup: Breakout Strategy
- Bullish Scenario: A close above $4,101 with strong volume and a bullish candle pattern (engulfing or three white soldiers) opens the door toward $4,132, then $4,170. Stop: below $4,050.
- Bearish Scenario: A close below $4,023 signals downside acceleration toward $3,990. Stop: above $4,060.
In a compression phase like this, patience is the actual trade.
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